RBC Canadian Open 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

Sandwiched between the Memorial, a PGA Tour signature event, and the U.S. Open is the RBC Canadian Open from TPC Toronto.

While many players are taking the week off, a few stars are in the field, headlined by Rory McIlroy. 

McIlroy enters with the best odds to win at +450.

The tournament rotates between top courses in Eastern Canada, and this is the first time TPC Toronto will host the event.

Two par-5s have been changed to par-4s, so it will be a par-70 this week. And at over 7,500 yards, it should play quite long and favor players who hit their long irons well. 

Without any course data to go by, handicapping this week is harder than most. 

With that being said, I will be prioritizing the following metrics: Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Proximity 150+ yards, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Par-4, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting.

*Odds as of June 3

RBC Canadian Open Prediction

Rory McIlroy is predicted to win the RBC Canadian Open with an 18.18% implied probability, according to betting markets. Ludvig Aberg is next at 6.67%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

RBC Canadian Open Best Bets

Corey Conners Outright Winner (+1800)

Conners checks off a number of boxes when it comes to key metrics, including being No. 2 in the entire field in Strokes Gained: Approach in the last 24 rounds, according to Fantasy National. Overall, he’s No. 2 in my Fantasy National model this week.

He also enters playing some solid golf, logging three straight top-25 finishes and finishing inside the top 20 at both majors so far this year.

Putting has always been his downfall, but it has improved a bit this season. In addition, with it being the first time players have seen the course, perhaps the below-average to poor putters won’t have as much of a disadvantage.

Two years ago, Nick Taylor became the first Canadian to win their national open in 69 years, so why not keep the momentum going and make it two winners in three years?

Shane Lowry Top-10 Finish (+175)

Lowry has had a very consistent season, with nine top 25s and four top 10s in 13 events played this season. Against a weaker field than most of the events he’s played in, this could give him a nice chance at another top-10 finish.

His lack of distance off the tee doesn’t help at this course, but he should be able to make up for it with his above-average iron play.

Don’t be surprised to see the Irishmen in the mix come Sunday afternoon once again this season.

Johnny Keefer Top-20 Finish (+250)

Keefer may be one of the best players that not many have heard of.

A graduate of Baylor, he earned his Korn Ferry Tour card through the PGA Tour Americas last year and has had a ton of success this year. In 12 Korn Ferry events this season, he has a win, two runner-ups, five top-5 finishes, as well as eight top-25 finishes. Going into this week, he’s No. 1 on the Korn Ferry Tour points list.

Keefer doesn’t have anything to lose, and getting a taste of the top competition at the PGA Championship last month, he could be in for a solid week.