RBC Heritage Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

This week should offer a refreshing exhale for the 54 players making the 130-mile trip from Augusta to Hilton Head.

There is no greater dichotomy on the professional golf calendar than the fortnight divided between the pressure cooker of the year’s first major championship and the lazy, laid-back island vibes surrounding one of the game’s coolest venues.

If four-and-a-half dozen competitors going back-to-back seems egregious, well, it would’ve been prior to last year, when the RBC Heritage became a PGA Tour signature event, thereby ensuring the best of the best would show up for this smaller field.

The host course, Harbour Town Golf Links, is an old-school 7,191-yard par-71 with tight fairways and small greens that reward precision over power. 

Jordan Spieth won in a playoff two years ago (against Patrick Cantlay) and lost one last year (to Matt Fitzpatrick), the correlating narrative being that creativity with a wedge will get you pretty far on this track. 

Other winners over the past decade include Webb Simpson, C.T. Pan, Satoshi Kodaira and Jim Furyk, each amongst the shortest hitters at the top level of the sport, highlighting that earlier bit about the necessity for accuracy.

Let’s get to the golf betting picks, as once again I’ll be spotlighting “conservative” and “aggressive” plays in each category for different types of bettors. 

RBC Heritage Outright Bets

Conservative: Ludvig Aberg (+1200)

As of the time I’m writing this, Masters champion Scottie Scheffler remains in the field, though baby-watch should be an even greater consideration than last week. 

On the one hand, if Scheffler does indeed tee it up for four rounds, that hurts the outright chances of everyone else, since he’s only lost to one – yes, one – player in his last four starts. On the other hand, however, his presence is keeping the price of everyone else in check, perhaps offering an early-week bargain on other big names if he does indeed withdraw at some point. 

All of which leads me to Aberg, who beat everyone not named Scheffler last week. Sure, it might feel like chasing after his title contention in Augusta, but I think he’ll come into this one brimming with confidence, and his victory at last year’s RSM Classic proves he’s not immune to playing his best golf on a tricky Southeast track with Bermuda greens.

Aggressive: Shane Lowry (+4500)

If an outright play on Lowry sounds familiar, that’s probably because you read it in this very same spot last week. In hindsight, there wasn’t a Masters longshot who was going to cash or even come close, but I’m a fan of sticking with players once you’ve decided to ride them. With three top-10s here in the last five years, including a pair of third-place results, this has always seemed like a logical place for him to triumph at some point.

RBC Heritage Top-5 Bets

Conservative: Corey Conners (+700)

Alright, so this isn’t the most conservative top-five play, but like Lowry, Conners is a guy I’ve favored throughout the season’s first three months, so I’m certainly not going to fade him at a ball-striker’s course such as this. After starting his career with three MCs at this one, he’s been 31st-or-better in each of the last four, including a T-4 two years ago.

Aggressive: Tom Kim (+750)

I’m a big fan of using final-round ball-striking stats from the previous week as a barometer of success at the current tournament and nobody was better at Augusta National on Sunday than Kim. 

He led the field in SG: Tee to Green and finished second in SG: Approach, while posting a 6-under 66. I’ll have an outright play on him this week at +6000, but I’ll back it up with the recommended top-five, as well.

RBC Heritage Top-10 Bets

Conservative: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+450)

With 54 players in this shortened field who also played the Masters, there aren’t a whole lot of options when seeking players who are coming off a week of rest, but I do like targeting some of these guys, especially for finishing position bets, as they don’t have the physical and mental exhaustion of playing four days on a brutally difficult setup. Bezuidenhout is traditionally a guy with great hands around the greens and a nice putting stroke, but this year his iron play has been through the roof, all of which lines up to make him a strong option for a top-10. 

Aggressive: Tom Hoge (+550)

Speaking of iron play, Hoge is a stud. He ranks second in the approach game this season and, like CBez, is coming in refreshed, having not played the Masters. He owns two top-10s in his last seven starts but had two other results just a notch below. His record here is surprisingly poor, so there’s some buyer beware at play, but if he can figure out the flat stick, this should be a place which suits him.

RBC Heritage First-Round Leader Bets

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+2200)

Another bring-back play from last week, Cantlay’s scoring average has massively descended – well, ascended – from round to round this year, his R1 number ranking second, while his R4 number is 181st. 

He did show some glimpses of better golf at the Masters, but while I’m not quite ready to back his impeccable course history of four top-threes in six career starts, I do like a single-round investment once again, as he’s posted a 66 and a pair of 67s here on Thursdays.

Aggressive: Russell Henley (+3300)

Last week, Henley followed up his T-4 at the 2023 Masters with a perfectly average T-38, during which none of his stats were great and none were terrible. He is, however, a player I traditionally like to target for FRLs and other single-round plays, considering he’s a very good iron player, but one of the streakier putters on the PGA Tour. 

At this price, I like a sprinkle in hopes he gets hot on the green for 18 holes.