Shriners Children’s Open 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The fall portion of the PGA Tour schedule is in full swing, as the Shriners Children’s Open from TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas is the third event.

While no fall event is a PGA Tour signature event, there are some solid players in the field, including defending champion Tom Kim and Ludvig Aberg, who played for Europe in last month’s Ryder Cup.

LPGA star Lexi Thompson received a sponsor’s exemption, making her the seventh woman to play in an official PGA Tour event.

Based on past years, expect plenty of birdies. The winning score in each of the last five years has been 21-under or better.

TPC Summerlin is a desert course, so it’ll be less about distance off the tee and more about accuracy. At 7,255 yards, along with plenty of dry air, players will likely have a lot of approach shots in the 100-150-yard range.

I’ll be targeting players who make a lot of birdies at short courses and keep the ball in play. 

Kim has the best odds to win at +1100. He won last year with a score of 24-under. Without a ton of star power in the field, plenty of players have better odds than on a normal week.

Below are some players to target, followed by my golf betting card for the week.

Shriners Children’s Open Predictions 

Tom Kim is expected to win the Fortinet Championship with a 8.33% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Ludvig Aberg is next at 7.69%, followed by Cam Davis and Si Woo Kim at 4.35%.

Shriners Children’s Open Best Bets

Tom Kim +1100 Odds to Win

Kim enters the event playing some of his best golf of late with seven straight top-25 finishes. The 21-year-old can also draw on his win at this event last year, so a lot of things are pointing his way.

Ludvig Aberg +1200 Odds to Win

It feels like only a matter of time before Aberg wins on the PGA Tour, and he nearly did it last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, falling just short in a five-man playoff. Having played in the Ryder Cup last month, he enters with plenty of confidence.

Shriners Children’s Open Sleepers

Aaron Rai +4500 Odds to Win

The strengths of Rai’s game are ball striking and staying out of trouble, which are important to have success at TPC Summerlin. He finished T-20 at this event last year and has four top-12 finishes in his last 12 starts overall. 

Doug Ghim +6000 Odds to Win

Ghim checks a lot of boxes this week, including ranking No. 1 in my Fantasy National model. He didn’t have a strong performance here last year, finishing T-56, but he’s playing well of late, logging a T-17 finish at the Fortinet Championship last month.

Shriners Children’s Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Matt NeSmith Top-10 Finish +500
• Aaron Rai Top-20 Finish +175 
• Doug Ghim Top-20 Finish +250

I have a very short card but will be relying heavily on my Fantasy National model, with all players ranking high.

Given the bunched odds at the top, I stayed away from selecting an outright winner.

Here’s my Fantasy National model for this week.

1. Doug Ghim
2. Tom Kim
3. J.J. Spaun
4. Aaron Rai
5. Alex Smalley
6. Andrew Putnam
7. Chez Reavie
8. Matt NeSmith
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Sam Ryder