Valspar Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

There’s an old saying: Form is temporary, class is permanent.

It can apply to plenty of scenarios and yet, it feels especially relevant in golf. The insinuation is that a talented player will more often win out over one riding a recent heater.

Maybe it’s true, maybe it’s not.

The analytics gurus will explain that there’s no real way of knowing because there aren’t definitive data points to clearly delineate what represents form and what represents class.

All of which brings me to this week’s Valspar Championship, right on the heels of an exhausting Players Championship, which featured heavy winds and a final-round suspension and plenty of consternation amongst those who were able to stick around until the end.

The usual idea is that we select players who are taking some momentum into the following tournament.

There are specific occasions, though, when I prefer (mostly) fading those who presided somewhere on the latest leaderboard.

This is one of those occasions.

Following a week of physical and mental exertion, when plenty of extra variables are thrown at those who competed for four straight days, I like the idea of – again, mostly – fading those who dealt with the conditions in favor of players who didn’t have to deal with ‘em, at least while in serious contention for a title.

At the Valspar, that means bypassing Will Zalatoris, who looked like the favorite at one point on Saturday, then dropped faster than you could say “snowman.” It means avoiding Corey Conners, whose current ball-striking/putting combo doesn’t yield enough birdies, but might be able to win him a U.S. Open.

Sure, there will definitely be players who reached the weekend at TPC Sawgrass listed below, but not those who were in serious contention. There are times to chase momentum; this might not be one of those times.

Let’s get to those picks, starting with a youngster playing with nothing to lose … literally.

Valspar Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Luke Clanton (+4500)

It’s been a whole 14 months since the last time an amateur won on the PGA Tour, and the fact that it was 33 years before the most recent occurrence before then only exacerbates the idea that elite-talent college kids are better equipped to win on the highest level than ever before. It’s also not a stretch to suggest that Clanton, who’s already clinched his PGA Tour card and owns three top-five finishes in the last eight months, is better equipped than Nick Dunlap last year, considering his odds are nearly 10 times shorter than Dunlap’s were before claiming The American Express.

Three weeks ago, Clanton assured himself membership at professional golf’s highest level whenever he chooses to become a professional, which will likely be approximately 30 seconds after his Florida State team either wins a national championship or is eliminated. For the time being, he’ll continue teeing it up in PGA Tour events when the schedule allows and while he can’t take home a winner’s paycheck and already has a card, winning can solidify plenty of other good things moving forward, like entrance into signature events and maybe even a spot on this year’s U.S. Ryder Cup team.

If talent and history aren’t enough to get you on his side for this one, there are two other reasons why backing Clanton is so appealing. The first is that he’s free-rolling this week. Whatever happens, he won’t lose his card. There’s a motivation to win with no real need for second place and beyond. He can play aggressively and when we’re betting his ceiling and not his floor, that’s what we like to see. The second reason might sound silly, but there’s something to it, too. Save for NIL deals and other endorsements, there remains something alluring about winning money on a player who won’t win anything on himself this week. 

(BetMGM is continuing its Second Chance offer all season long, so if your pick to win finishes in second place, you get your stake back.)

Aggressive: Kurt Kitayama (+6600)

Over the first two-and-a-half months of this season, Kitayama is a player I’ve wanted to target a few times, both in the outright and finishing position markets, until I’ve looked at his number, which has been noticeably short due to his high-level tee-to-green game. Well, allow me to offer a big thank you to the oddsmakers, as those short numbers kept me from backing a guy who hasn’t finished better than T-33 in seven starts so far.

Due to those results, the odds are starting to change now, even if his ball-striking numbers aren’t. I’m admittedly taking a leap of faith here, as Kitayama has played the Valspar just once before, missing the cut three years ago. He does, though, have a win in the state of Florida against an elite field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which should give us some confidence that a final Sunshine State appearance could be just what he needs to get his results in line with his performance. There’s certainly an upside here.

Valspar Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Justin Thomas (+300)

Example No. 5,619,402 for the “Golf is Weird” files: Last week, Thomas opened with a 78 during which he ranked dead last tee to green, only to shoot 62 the very next day when ranked first in the same category. If nothing else, we witnessed the upside of JT before a pair of 73s on the weekend left him in a share of 33rd place. He’s fared well in situations where he can feel like he’s the best – or one of the best – player in a certain field, meaning something that isn’t a major or The Players or a playoff or signature event. In seven previous Valspar starts, he’s posted just one top-five (T-3 in 2022), but does own five results of 18th or better. He’s close to putting it all together for four consecutive rounds.

Aggressive: Nicolai Hojgaard (+1400)

There was a renewed spotlight on the SG: Total category during last week’s Players Championship. With Alex Smalley in contention, it put a focus on how his performance has been on par with the game’s best over the season’s first few months, as he ranked behind only Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy, right in front of Scottie Scheffler. Well, the narrative didn’t force us to peruse that list any further, but if we’d looked just past Scheffler’s name, we would’ve seen Hojgaard sitting in fifth place, showing that his game has been very much in form recently. The results haven’t quite followed, as his best finish is a solo eighth, joined by a T-18, T-36 and an MC last week, but I’ll bank on a guy who’s doing everything well.

Valspar Championship Top-10 Picks

Keith Mitchell (+500)

Mention “Keith Mitchell” and “Valspar Championship” in the same sentence and you’re likely to induce a little PTSD for some bettors – and maybe Mitchell himself. One year ago, he eagled the final hole at Innisbrook in the third round, grabbing a two-stroke advantage entering the last day. He then proceeded to shoot 77, not just failing to win, but failing to even cash top-10 tickets. That might be enough to keep some from ever backing him again, let alone at this tournament, but I’m an unabashed fan of Mitchell’s game.

He’s one of the top-five drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour (currently ranking third) and last year his iron play ranked 12th. It could be surmised that if he could make some putts, he’d be a top-20 player in the world, and while that isn’t completely untrue, he’s not as unreliable on the greens as a few other tee-to-green stalwarts. I’m still buying low on Cashmere Keith, even coming off a missed cut, especially on a course which obviously suits his game. 

Max McGreevy (+500)

Fresh off a share of 20th place at TPC Sawgrass, McGreevy is the highest finisher on last week’s leaderboard whom I’ll target for this one, just because I think he’s on the verge of some big things and want to keep backing him before he gets there. The University of Oklahoma product is in his second stint on the PGA Tour and while the first one wasn’t exactly some total failure, a bit of seasoning on the Korn Ferry circuit has seen him return as a player who should be ready to win at this level. His numbers off the tee and with his irons have been well above-average this season, but they were even better last week, as he ranked fourth in the former and 14th in the latter. I’m expecting more peaks than valleys in coming weeks and months, so consider me not just a short-term buyer, but a long-term investor here, as well.

Valspar Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Michael Kim (+180)

Aggressive: Andrew Novak (+300)

I’m grouping these two guys together, because there are so many parallels. As much as any player(s) on the PGA Tour, they’ve played above their baseline so far this season. As much as any player(s), they probably owned little support in the markets when they’ve had their best stuff. As much as any player(s), you probably played more of them at The Players than you ever would’ve thought just a few months ago. And as much as any player(s), they provided a massive letdown, failing to reach the weekend right when the masses got interested.

Coming off a missed cut for each, their inevitable disappointments might’ve faded a bit when they realized that they wouldn’t have to deal with the elements during the final two days at TPC Sawgrass. Don’t get me wrong; no player enjoys missing the cut, but if you’ve gotta miss one, missing one that proceeds to beat up the other guys can often be a blessing in disguise. I like the idea of banking on a couple of bounce-backs this week. 

Valspar Championship Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Jackson Suber (market not yet available)

You know you write a lot about golf betting (too much?) when you find yourself pecking out the following sentence on a Monday morning: I’ve been targeting Suber as a low-end floor play at this tournament for a while now. Entering last week, the rookie led the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, which is unequivocally impressive, considering the likes of Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler were right behind him. He also happens to be a Tampa native, as the Valspar is one of just three events he’d played prior to becoming a full-time member. He missed the cut three years ago, but scores of 70-74 were hardly cause for pessimism and you know he’s had this one circled on his calendar ever since he claimed that card.

Aggressive: Ricky Castillo (market not yet available)

In his rookie campaign on the PGA Tour, Castillo had made five consecutive cuts before missing by one at TPC Sawgrass last week. Granted, only one of those five resulted in a top-40, but there’s reason to back the big-hitting University of Florida product for a floor play at a course where strong driving will provide a nice edge.

Valspar Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Harry Hall (+9000)

He’s coming off an opening-round 75 at The Players, but in seven previous starts this year, Hall has already logged two 64s, a 68 and a 69, with one of those 64s giving him a share of the FRL honor at the Mexico Open. Even though the Englishman might look like a Bryson DeChambeau knockoff, he largely does most of his damage with the short game and putter. I don’t mind banking on a great rock-roller for a single-round investment with the hopes that he can get hot in a hurry.

Aggressive: Davis Riley (+9000)

I know there were a decent amount of Riley backers at the Puerto Rico Open, where he finished T-6 and though he followed with a T-38 at The Players, I’m not quite ready to buy in for full-tournament plays just yet. That said, he’s posted five scores of 67 or better in his last 12 rounds, including a couple of opening-round 64s, and he owns a nice record at Innisbrook, with a playoff loss three years ago and a T-19 two years ago, so I do think he makes some sense as a fast starter.