WM Phoenix Open 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The Phoenix region will be the center of the sports world this week, with the Super Bowl at State Farm Stadium and the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale.

The tournament was already the most electric on the PGA Tour, and that bar will be raised even higher this week with more fans in attendance and it being a designated event. That means the best players in the world will be competing for a $20 million purse. 

At just over 7,200 yards, the course is average by PGA Tour standards and doesn’t favor the longer or shorter hitters. But, to score well, players must be on top of their ball striking and scramble well to avoid bogeys. 

The rough isn’t very penalizing, but players must avoid strategically placed water hazards.

While the past few weeks have given advantages to players who putt well on poa, putting won’t be a key metric this week. TPC Scottsdale greens are an over-seeded hybrid grass blend and roll pure and true. Historically, these have been some of the easiest greens of the year to putt on.

Lastly, course history plays more of a factor than in most weeks. Players who play well at this event typically replicate it year after year.

When it comes to picking a winner, more often than not, they’ve been among the best players in the field.

In nine of the last 10 years, the winner opened between 10-1 and 50-1. Additionally, since 2015, every winner at the event has been a major champion or won The Players Championship. 

Going into the week, Jon Rahm (+750) has the best odds to win, followed by Rory McIlroy (+800).

Bottom line: This is a week where the best players rise to the top, and it may be wise to avoid the long shots.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

WM Phoenix Open Predictions

Jon Rahm is predicted to win WM Phoenix Open with an 11.76% implied probability, according to betting markets.

Rory McIlroy has the next best odds to win with an 11.11% implied probability. He’s followed by Scottie Scheffler with a 7.69% implied probability and then Xander Schauffele at 5.58%.

WM Phoenix Open Best Bets

Rory McIlroy +800 Odds to Win

Besides Jon Rahm, no one is hotter than McIlory right now. The 33-year-old won two weeks ago at the Dubai Desert Classic, and the No. 1-ranked player in the world has now won twice in his last three events worldwide. He also has eight straight top-10 finishes in events worldwide.

The only issue with him this week is a lack of experience at TPC Scottsdale. He finished T-13 in 2021.

Xander Schauffele +1600 Odds to Win

The 29-year-old has finished in the top 20 in all five appearances at this event, including third last year and second in 2021. Schauffele has always played well at majors, and this has a major-tournament feel.

There were some concerns about his back after he withdrew from the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but he finished T-3 at The American Express and T-13 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Patrick Cantlay +2000 Odds to Win

Cantlay checks a lot of boxes this week, including losing in a playoff at the event last year to Scottie Scheffler. His ability to scramble and avoid bogeys will be a major key to how well he does.

He has two top-16 finishes in three events this season.

WM Phoenix Open Sleepers

Sahith Theegala +4000 Odds to Win

Theegala burst onto the scene a year ago at this event with a T-3 in his tournament debut. It certainly feels like he’s close to claiming his first career victory, and this could be the place to do it.

He finished T-4 in his last event (Farmers Insurance Open).

Billy Horschel +8000 Odds to Win

Horschel is one of the streakiest players on the PGA Tour, as when he’s on top of his game, he can compete with anyone. He’s made nine of 10 cuts at this tournament, including two top 10s. 

For a player of his caliber, +8000 is tremendous value.

WM Phoenix Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Patrick Cantlay Outright Win +2000
• Sungjae Im Outright Win +2800
• Tom Kim Outright Win +3000
• Rory McIlroy Top-5 Finish +170
• Brian Harman Top-20 Finish +225

Given that this tournament caters to the top players, my card is much smaller than usual.

Once again, I’m relying heavily on my Fantasy National model. My top 10 was: Xander Schauffele, Cantlay, McIlroy, Tony Finau, Shane Lowry, Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Im, Max Homa and Scottie Scheffler.

I really like the value for all three outright plays. As for props, McIlroy has been on fire of late, and Harman came out 14th in my model, providing solid value.