- Arsenal is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- Arsenal has won each of its last seven EPL home matches against Bournemouth.
- My Arsenal vs Bournemouth prediction comes on both a spread and total.
Arsenal, sandwiched in between two Champions League fixtures, welcomes Bournemouth to the Emirates on Saturday.
Liverpool officially captured the league title, leaving Arsenal little motivation in the league. For Mikel Arteta’s side, they’ll try for an 11th league win in 18 home matches this weekend.
Bournemouth started strong against Manchester United on Sunday. However, a red card resigned the Cherries to a point instead of three, leaving Bournemouth 10th in the table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Premier League Odds
- Arsenal Moneyline: -115
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +290
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-125/-110)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-135), “No” (-102)
Bournemouth vs Arsenal: Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s poor record between two European legs, my Arsenal vs Bournemouth predictions are Bournemouth (+0.5, -115) and Over 2.5 Goals (-125).
How we’re getting a total of 2.5 in a match featuring a high-event road team and weakened Arsenal defense is a mystery to me.
This season, 13 of Bournemouth’s 17 road matches have cleared 2.5 goals. Across all 17 matches, Bournemouth and their opponents combined to average 3.17 xG per 90.
Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in either of their sandwich spots….and both attacks rank behind Bournemouth in xG and post-shot xG per 90 minutes.
They also surrendered 1.8 xG and 1.5 post-shot xG to Crystal Palace on short rest. But, it’s also an Arsenal attack that has scored in all but two home matches, with two or more in 11 of 17.
This fixture also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since last year, matches featuring a total set at 2.5 goals are 69-28 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.4 and 1.9
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.8
With a home favorite, those matches are 43-13 to the over. When Bournemouth plays away from home in that spot, the matches are 4-1 to the over.
I’ll pair that bet with Bournemouth to cover the spread, something they’ve accomplished in 64.7% of road matches this season.
Not only have Arsenal failed to win both matches sandwiched between two UCL legs since January, but I question how they hold up against Bournemouth’s attack.
This season, Bournemouth earned results in all but one match where they scored two or more goals.
Given Arsenal’s current defensive absentees and the short rest spot, I like Bournemouth to notch a result in a more meaningful match for the visitors.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | May. 1 | 2:30 p.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Wolves | May. 2 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
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