- Arsenal is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Chelsea.
- The home team has won each of Chelsea's last seven EPL matches.
- My Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction is for Arsenal to earn all three points.
It’s the marquee fixture of Premier League Matchday 29 as Arsenal hosts Chelsea in a London derby.
Arsenal dropped points in a 1-1 draw at Manchester United on Sunday. That marks three league matches in a row Arsenal have failed to earn all three points.
Chelsea captured a 1-0 win over Leicester City on Sunday, their second straight league win. Accordingly, Chelsea moved to fourth in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea: Premier League Odds
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s weak record away from home, my Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction is the Arsenal Moneyline (-125).
I’m going to debate this selection as there are signals to bet Arsenal. That said, the lack of an attack is slightly worrisome.
The optimistic case for the hosts is that Chelsea’s recent road form leaves much to be desired.
The Blues haven’t earned all three points away from home since December 8. In their last six away matches, Chelsea owns a 0-2-4 (W-D-L) record.
Of those six matches, none saw Chelsea post an expected goal differential better than +0.4 (at Ipswich Town).
Plus, Chelsea finished level with Arsenal on expected goals in the reverse fixture with a -0.5 post-shot xGDiff.
This season, Arsenal has played significantly better at home. Across the entire season, Mikel Arteta’s side owns a +1.1 xGDiff per 90 at home compared to a +0.34 differential on the road.
The glaring concern is that Arsenal dropped points in two of their previous three at home.
But they also blew out Manchester City 5-1 at home without Bukayo Saka, who might return on Sunday.
Chelsea and City are comparable defenses by both expected goals and post-shot expected goals. This season, Arsenal are 7-2-0 (W-D-L) when scoring at least two goals at home.
History also likes this spot on Arsenal.
Since 2012, home favorites between -161 and -107 are 41-10 SU, assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s game number falls between 24 and 37
- The underdog closed as a favorite in their last game
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +4
When the favorite failed to win their last game, they improved to 27-4 SU over that span, including 15-3 between -130 and -107.
As a result, it’s Arsenal or nothing for me on Sunday.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 10-13-5 | 44.6% | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-10-1 | 62.5% | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 8-3-2 | 69.2% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16-11-1 | 58.9% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 9-4-1 | 67.9% |
| Chelsea | 10-16-2 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-9-4 | 60.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-15-2 | 42.9% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-15-1 | 44.6% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-19-0 | 32.1% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 11-13-4 | 46.4% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 5-6-2 | 46.2% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-10-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% |
| Southampton | 10-15-3 | 41.1% | 2-10-1 | 19.2% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-16-1 | 41.1% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% |
| West Ham United | 14-13-1 | 51.8% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 9-4-0 | 69.2% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12-13-3 | 48.2% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 15-10-3 | 55 | 28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-6-7 | 51 | 12 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-7 | 49 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 14-5-9 | 47 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-10-6 | 46 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-8 | 44 | 13 |
| Fulham | 11-9-8 | 42 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Brentford | 11-5-12 | 38 | 4 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-14 | 34 | 14 |
| Manchester United | 9-7-12 | 34 | -6 |
| Everton | 7-12-9 | 33 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-6-13 | 33 | -16 |
| Wolves | 6-5-17 | 23 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-17 | 17 | -32 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-19 | 17 | -37 |
| Southampton | 2-3-23 | 9 | -48 |
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