- Arsenal is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Man City.
- Each of Arsenal's last four EPL Sunday day matches have resulted in a draw.
- My Arsenal vs. Man City prediction is a lean to Manchester City.
Itโs the preeminent match for EPL Matchday 24 as Arsenal hosts Manchester City.ย
Arsenal earned a 1-0 road win over Wolves last week, while City throttled Chelsea 3-1 at home. As it stands, Arsenal owns a six-point advantage over City in the league table.ย
The last time these sides met, City captured a late 2-2 draw after playing the entire second half up a man. Now, theyโll look for only their second road win against a top-half home side.ย
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Man City prediction.ย
Arsenal vs. Man City Odds, Premier League
Arsenal vs. Man City Prediction
Based on Arsenalโs mispricing without key players and a historically profitable betting system, my Arsenal vs. Man City prediction is a lean to the Man City Spread (+0.5, -140).ย
Itโs such a tempting number for Man City, but thereโs one big concern with this team.ย
This marks Cityโs eight match against a team 10th or better in home expected goal differential. In the previous seven, theyโve earned only one win and three results.ย
But this number on Arsenal is a head-scratcher. On December 1, Liverpool closed at +105 on the three-way moneyline against Man City.ย
Under no circumstances are Arsenal, which is still without Bukayo Saka, an equal side to Liverpool.ย
So far this season, Liverpool own a +1.46 xGDiff per 90 and a +1.38 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย
Arsenal, through 23 matches, owns a +0.75 xGDiff per 90 and a +0.83 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย
History also likes this spot to back Man City to cover the spread and potentially capture an outright win.ย
Letโs start with the spread.
Half-goal dogs who posted a +2 or +3 margin in their previous game are 67-41 ATS, assuming the opponentโs previous game margin falls between +0 and +2.ย
Just over the last three years: 30-13 ATS.ย
As for the moneyline, the same dogs off a 2-3 goal win are 29-45 SU, assuming the favorite’s previous margin is +0 or +1.ย
Since 2020, those dogs are 16-22 against the three-way moneyline.ย
Pair those with the trends with the fact Kevin De Bruyne missed the last match and itโs City to cover the spread or nothing.
Premier League Match Schedule
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Nottingham Forest | Brighton | Feb. 1 | 7:30 a.m. | The City Ground |
Bournemouth | Liverpool | Feb. 1 | 10 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
Everton | Leicester City | Feb. 1 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
Ipswich Town | Southampton | Feb. 1 | 10 a.m. | Portman Road |
Newcastle | Fulham | Feb. 1 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
Wolves | Aston Villa | Feb. 1 | 12:30 p.m | Molineux |
Brentford | Tottenham | Feb. 2 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
Manchester United | Crystal Palace | Feb. 2 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
Arsenal | Manchester City | Feb. 2 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
Chelsea | West Ham United | Feb. 3 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
Arsenal | 8-10-5 | 45.7% | 2-6-3 | 31.8% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
Aston Villa | 8-14-1 | 37.0% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% |
Bournemouth | 16-7-0 | 69.6% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
Brentford | 14-7-2 | 65.2% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-10-1 | 54.3% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-3-1 | 70.8% |
Chelsea | 9-12-2 | 43.5% | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
Crystal Palace | 12-8-3 | 58.7% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 8-3-0 | 72.7% |
Everton | 11-9-2 | 54.5% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
Fulham | 13-8-2 | 60.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 7-2-2 | 72.7% |
Ipswich Town | 10-12-1 | 45.7% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
Leicester City | 11-11-1 | 50.0% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
Liverpool | 12-9-1 | 56.8% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% |
Manchester City | 7-16-0 | 30.4% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% |
Manchester United | 10-11-2 | 47.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
Newcastle United | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
Nottingham Forest | 15-8-0 | 65.2% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
Southampton | 8-12-3 | 41.3% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
Tottenham Hotspur | 8-15-0 | 34.8% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% |
West Ham United | 11-11-1 | 50.0% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9-12-2 | 43.5% | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
Premier League Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Liverpool | 16-5-1 | 53 | 33 |
Arsenal | 13-8-2 | 47 | 23 |
Nottingham Forest | 13-5-5 | 44 | 6 |
Manchester City | 12-5-6 | 41 | 17 |
Newcastle United | 12-5-6 | 41 | 14 |
Chelsea | 11-7-5 | 40 | 15 |
Bournemouth | 11-7-5 | 40 | 15 |
Aston Villa | 10-7-6 | 37 | -1 |
Brighton | 8-10-5 | 34 | 4 |
Fulham | 8-9-6 | 33 | 3 |
Brentford | 9-4-10 | 31 | 2 |
Manchester United | 8-5-10 | 29 | -4 |
Crystal Palace | 6-9-8 | 27 | -4 |
West Ham United | 7-6-10 | 27 | -16 |
Tottenham | 7-3-13 | 24 | 9 |
Everton | 5-8-9 | 23 | -9 |
Leicester City | 3-5-14 | 17 | -24 |
Wolves | 4-4-15 | 16 | -20 |
Ipswich Town | 3-7-13 | 16 | -26 |
Southampton | 1-3-19 | 6 | -37 |
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