Arsenal vs. Man City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

  • Arsenal is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Man City.
  • Each of Arsenal's last four EPL Sunday day matches have resulted in a draw.
  • My Arsenal vs. Man City prediction is a lean to Manchester City.

Itโ€™s the preeminent match for EPL Matchday 24 as Arsenal hosts Manchester City.ย 

Arsenal earned a 1-0 road win over Wolves last week, while City throttled Chelsea 3-1 at home. As it stands, Arsenal owns a six-point advantage over City in the league table.ย 

The last time these sides met, City captured a late 2-2 draw after playing the entire second half up a man. Now, theyโ€™ll look for only their second road win against a top-half home side.ย 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Man City prediction.ย 

Arsenal vs. Man City Odds, Premier League

Arsenal vs. Man City Prediction

Based on Arsenalโ€™s mispricing without key players and a historically profitable betting system, my Arsenal vs. Man City prediction is a lean to the Man City Spread (+0.5, -140).ย 

Itโ€™s such a tempting number for Man City, but thereโ€™s one big concern with this team.ย 

This marks Cityโ€™s eight match against a team 10th or better in home expected goal differential. In the previous seven, theyโ€™ve earned only one win and three results.ย 

But this number on Arsenal is a head-scratcher. On December 1, Liverpool closed at +105 on the three-way moneyline against Man City.ย 

Under no circumstances are Arsenal, which is still without Bukayo Saka, an equal side to Liverpool.ย 

So far this season, Liverpool own a +1.46 xGDiff per 90 and a +1.38 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย 

Arsenal, through 23 matches, owns a +0.75 xGDiff per 90 and a +0.83 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย 

History also likes this spot to back Man City to cover the spread and potentially capture an outright win.ย 

Letโ€™s start with the spread.

Half-goal dogs who posted a +2 or +3 margin in their previous game are 67-41 ATS, assuming the opponentโ€™s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2.ย 

Just over the last three years: 30-13 ATS.ย 

As for the moneyline, the same dogs off a 2-3 goal win are 29-45 SU, assuming the favorite’s previous margin is +0 or +1.ย 

Since 2020, those dogs are 16-22 against the three-way moneyline.ย 

Pair those with the trends with the fact Kevin De Bruyne missed the last match and itโ€™s City to cover the spread or nothing.

Premier League Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Nottingham ForestBrightonFeb. 17:30 a.m.The City Ground
BournemouthLiverpoolFeb. 110 a.m.Vitality Stadium
EvertonLeicester CityFeb. 110 a.m.Goodison Park
Ipswich TownSouthamptonFeb. 110 a.m.Portman Road
NewcastleFulhamFeb. 110 a.m.St. James' Park
WolvesAston VillaFeb. 112:30 p.mMolineux
BrentfordTottenhamFeb. 29 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
Manchester UnitedCrystal PalaceFeb. 29 a.m.Old Trafford
ArsenalManchester CityFeb. 211:30 a.m.Emirates Stadium
ChelseaWest Ham UnitedFeb. 33 p.m. Stamford Bridge

Premier League Against the Spread Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal8-10-545.7%2-6-331.8%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-14-137.0%3-8-129.2%5-6-045.5%
Bournemouth16-7-069.6%7-4-063.6%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-7-265.2%8-4-066.7%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-10-154.3%4-7-036.4%8-3-170.8%
Chelsea9-12-243.5%4-6-140.9%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace12-8-358.7%4-5-345.8%8-3-072.7%
Everton11-9-254.5%5-5-150.0%6-4-159.1%
Fulham13-8-260.9%5-7-041.7%7-2-272.7%
Ipswich Town10-12-145.7%4-8-033.3%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-11-150.0%5-7-041.7%6-4-159.1%
Liverpool12-9-156.8%5-5-150.0%7-4-063.6%
Manchester City7-16-030.4%3-8-027.3%4-8-033.3%
Manchester United10-11-247.8%5-6-145.8%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-9-158.7%7-4-063.6%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest15-8-065.2%6-5-054.5%9-3-075.0%
Southampton8-12-341.3%2-8-122.7%6-4-258.3%
Tottenham Hotspur8-15-034.8%4-8-033.3%4-7-036.4%
West Ham United11-11-150.0%4-7-137.5%7-4-063.6%
Wolverhampton Wanderers9-12-243.5%4-6-140.9%5-6-145.8%

Premier League Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool16-5-15333
Arsenal13-8-24723
Nottingham Forest13-5-5446
Manchester City12-5-64117
Newcastle United12-5-64114
Chelsea11-7-54015
Bournemouth11-7-54015
Aston Villa10-7-637-1
Brighton8-10-5344
Fulham8-9-6333
Brentford9-4-10312
Manchester United8-5-1029-4
Crystal Palace6-9-827-4
West Ham United7-6-1027-16
Tottenham7-3-13249
Everton5-8-923-9
Leicester City3-5-1417-24
Wolves4-4-1516-20
Ipswich Town3-7-1316-26
Southampton1-3-196-37

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.