- Arsenal is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Manchester United.
- Arsenal has won 10 of its last 11 EPL night matches.
- My Arsenal vs. Manchester United prediction focuses on the first half.
Two EPL powerhouses meet on Thursday in North London as Arsenal hosts Manchester United.
Arsenal raced out to a 5-2 lead at halftime against West Ham, buoyed by two Bukayo Saka penalties. That marks the second consecutive win from Arsenal by at least multiple goals.
United earned an impressive 4-0 home win over Everton on Matchday 13, their first win under new manager Ruben Amorim. Still, United sits 9th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Manchester United prediction.
Arsenal vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | +1.5 (-160) | 2.5 (-175) | +550 |
| Arsenal | -1.5 (+115) | 2.5 (+125) | -225 |
| Draw | +375 |
Arsenal vs. Manchester United Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s strong offensive record early and United’s weak attacking metrics in the first half, my Arsenal vs. Manchester United prediction is the Arsenal 1H Moneyline (-110).
The way this bet loses is if Manchester United somehow reverses their offensive trends early against good teams.
United has played three games against fellow Big Six clubs this season, all of which came at Old Trafford.
The Red Devils have scored zero first-half goals in those contests. Cumulatively, Manchester United has amassed 1.14 expected goals and 0.36 post-shot xG in those first halves.
The defense also struggles to limit chances early. Sample those three games and bettors will find United allowed 3.77 post-shot xG in those three games.
United also struggled immensely in their hardest road game to date. As slight road dogs against Brighton, United fell behind 1-0 at halftime with a -0.93 post-shot xGDiff.
Now they face an Arsenal team that has scored at least one first-half goal in four of five home games this year.
Dating back to last year, Mikel Arteta’s side has failed to score a home first-half goal only six times in 24 matches.
The Gooners’ underlying metrics support a strong performance in the first half.
This season, Arsenal owns a +8.01 expected goal differential in the first half, per understat.com, without adjusting for venue or schedule strength.
Comparatively, United owns a +3.26 xGDiff in the first half. Given the above data, this tells me United bosses bad teams and gets bossed by good teams.
As a result, take Arsenal to jump out to an early lead for the third consecutive game.
