- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Brentford.
- Brentford has lost eight straight EPL night matches as a road underdog.
- My Aston Villa vs. Brentford prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Off a bad road loss against Chelsea, Aston Villa returns home to face an upstart Brentford side.
Villa’s 3-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge extended their winless run to seven matches across all competitions. In the league, Unai Emery’s side has two points from 15 in their last five.
Brentford briefly fell behind 1-0 to Leicester City over the weekend. However, they responded with four unanswered goals to win and cover as home favorites.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Brentford prediction.
Aston Villa vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | +0.5 (+100) | 2.5 (-185) | +320 |
| Aston Villa | -0.5 (-145) | 2.5 (+130) | -130 |
| Draw | +300 |
Aston Villa vs. Brentford Prediction
Based on the strength of Brentford’s attack and Villa’s attacking metrics at home, my Aston Villa vs. Brentford prediction is a SGP: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-120).
This SGP cashed in both head-to-head meetings last season, including a 3-3 draw at Villa Park in the most recent meeting.
Right now, Villa’s defense lacks any consistency. Emery’s side has kept only one clean sheet this season and has allowed at least 1.3 xG in four straight matches.
While the competition level over that span has undoubtedly toughened, this remains a Villa side that conceded 1.3 xG and 1.9 post-shot xG to Crystal Palace.
Brentford has failed to score only twice this season: at Liverpool, the best defense in the league, and at Everton, where they had a man sent off on 41 minutes.
The issue with Brentford is their defense is equally as bad as their attack is strong.
Thomas Frank’s side has managed only one clean sheet this year. On Thursday, they get a Villa side that has scored in all but one match as a market favorite this season.
As for the match clearing 2.5 goals, history likes this spot on the over.
Since the beginning of last season, matches with a total at 2.5 are 43-16 (73%) to the over, assuming two factors:
- The home team’s previous game margin falls between -3 and -1
- The away team’s average number of goals falls between 1.3 and 2.5
Add in Brentford road matches are averaging 2.82 expected goals per 90 minutes, and I’ll take this match to prove a high-scoring affair for the third straight meeting.
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