- Aston Villa is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Newcastle.
- Aston Villa has won five of its last six EPL matches.
- My Aston Villa vs Newcastle prediction is Aston Villa’s spread.
Two European hopefuls meet in a short rest spot on Saturday as Aston Villa hosts Newcastle United.
Villa scored three times in the second half to cruise against Southampton last weekend. They’ll face a midweek match against PSG on Tuesday before going for a fifth straight league win.
Newcastle also dominated the second half over the weekend on their way to a 4-1 win over Manchester United. With the win, Newcastle moved up to fifth in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Newcastle prediction.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle: Premier League Odds
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +138
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +180
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-200), “No” (+135)
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Prediction
Based on Aston Villa’s expected positive regression at home and Newcastle’s struggles against good teams, my Aston Villa vs Newcastle prediction is Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-140).
Not since Matchday 2 against Arsenal has Villa dropped all three points at Villa Park. Over the last three years, Villa have lost only nine games outright at home.
They’ll arrive at Saturday’s fixture with a rest edge over Newcastle, who play a midweek fixture a day after Villa plays in the Champions League.
Even more problematic for Newcastle? The schedule forces travel while Villa play consecutive home matches on Tuesday and Saturday.
It’s also a chance to fade a Newcastle side that has struggled to win against the league’s best teams.
Excluding Wednesday’s match against Crystal Palace, Newcastle have seen 13 of their 17 wins this season come against teams 11th or worse.
Of the four remaining wins, three have come at home.
Plus, metrics rate Villa a major positive regression candidate at home. Entering Saturday’s match, Villa own a +8 goal differential compared to a +12.8 xGDiff at Villa Park, per fbref.com.
Newcastle own the EPL’s second-best road xGDiff per 90, but most of that success came against bad teams.
Lastly, history tells us to buy short home favorites that received a blowout loss in the last meeting.
Since 2012, home favorites between +108 and +179 are 48-32, assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +3
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head falls between -4 and -2
In that 80-game sample, favorites dropped all three points only 16 times, so I like the price on Villa to avoid defeat.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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