- Bournemouth is a 0.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal has won each of its last nine EPL night matches.
- Depending on Arsenal’s lineup, my prediction is the Arsenal moneyline.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal looks for a third straight league win with a trip to Bournemouth out of the international break.
The Gooners received a test against Southampton prior to the break, but they ultimately escaped with a 3-1 win. Currently, Arsenal sits third in the league.
Bournemouth sit 13th in the table having dropped all three points in three of their last four fixtures. This season, the Cherries are 0-2 SU against Big Six clubs.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Arsenal prediction.
Premier League Odds: Bournemouth vs. Arsenal
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | -0.5 (-165) | 2.5 (-150) | -155 |
| Bournemouth | +0.5 (+120) | 2.5 (+110) | +380 |
| Draw | +310 |
Premier League Betting: Bournemouth vs. Arsenal Prediction
My prediction for Bournemouth vs. Arsenal is the Arsenal Moneyline (-155), but it’s dependent on Arteta’s starting lineup.
Currently, Arsenal are dealing with so many injuries. Captain Martin Odegaard is definitely out on Saturday as is winger Gabriel Martinelli.
All of the following players could miss out as well: Bukayo Saka, Ben White, Jurrien Timber, Kai Havertz and Thomas Partey.
If even a majority of those players can’t feature, there’s no chance I’m betting Arsenal at this steep a price.
But if suddenly the latter duo are the only absentees, there’s a clear case for Arsenal.
Last year, Arsenal dominated the Cherries. They won both meetings by a 7-0 differential with a +5.71 expected goal differential.
Even if you remove all three Arsenal penalties, it’s still a +4 goal differential compared to a +3.34 non-penalty xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
Arsenal also matches a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2012, favorites priced between -180 and +115 with 13-15 days between games are 128-83 SU (61%).
When those teams won the previous head-to-head matchup, they improve to 61-35 SU (63.5%).
However, I need clarity on Arsenal’s injury concerns before making a bet. If the concerns are subdued and their key players feature, I’d grab the visitors at -170 or better on Saturday.
Bournemouth Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 at Leicester City: 0-1, L
- Sept. 30 vs. Southampton: 3-1, W
- Sept. 21 at Liverpool: 0-3, L
- Sept. 14 vs. Chelsea: 0-1, L
- Aug. 31 at Everton: 3-2, W
Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 vs. Southampton: 3-1, W
- Oct. 1 vs. PSG: 2-0, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 28 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W
- Sept. 25 vs. Bolton: 5-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 22 at Manchester City: 2-2, D
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