- Bournemouth is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa has won each of its last six EPL Saturday matches.
- My Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa prediction is Aston Villa’s spread.
Two teams contending for European spots cap off Saturday’s EPL slate with Bournemouth hosting Aston Villa.
The hosts captured a 2-1 come-from-behind win over Arsenal over the weekend and currently sit eighth in the table, which could become a Europa Conference League spot.
Villa captured a 1-0 win over Fulham on Matchday 35 and trails the final Champions League spot by three points. Away from home, Villa have won three of their last four.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: Premier League Odds
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +145
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +170
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-175), “No” (+120)
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth: Prediction
Based on Aston Villa’s road improvement and their rest period for Saturday, my Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction is Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-105).
This game presents a milestone for Villa from a rest standpoint.
For virtually all of this calendar year, Villa’s involvement in multiple competitions constantly forced them to play matches in short rest spots.
Saturday’s fixture at Bournemouth marks the first time since December Villa played a league fixture with a full week to prepare.
While Villa’s road metrics offer a troubling look – only four teams own a worse road expected goal differential – improvement has come recently.
Villa have won three of their last four away from home, including trips to Brentford and Brighton. Across all four matches, Villa have yet to lose the expected goals battle.
The key for Villa in this match: Find a way to contain the Bournemouth attack. This season, manager Unai Emery’s side is unbeaten when they allow one or fewer goals (W16-D4-L0).
Conversely, Villa posted a 1-5-9 (W-D-L) record when surrendering two or more goals.
Bournemouth took advantage of an Arsenal defense playing on short rest Saturday. However, I question how they break down Villa’s defense.
Albeit away from home, Bournemouth generated only 1.1 post-shot expected goals in the earlier match at Villa Park.
Manager Andoni Iraola’s side has also hit a rough patch at home offensively. Not since January 25 have the Cherries notched at least two goals.
While it’s a slight concern Bournemouth have run very unlucky offensively at home – 21 goals off 29 expected – most of that comes from two matches.
Remove games against Tottenham and Liverpool – both of which saw Bournemouth operate as an underdog – and it becomes 20 goals scored off 24 expected.
As a result, I like Aston Villa to avoid defeat on Saturday at the Vitality Stadium.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Fulham | Everton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Brentford | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Southampton | Manchester City | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Brighton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | May. 10 | 12:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Chelsea | May. 11 | 7 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leicester City | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester United | West Ham United | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Liverpool | Arsenal | May. 11 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-17-6 | 42.9% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 19-14-2 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-2 | 65.7% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 19-15-1 | 55.7% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 13-19-3 | 41.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-12-6 | 57.1% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-2 | 42.9% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-17-2 | 48.6% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-23-0 | 34.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-17-4 | 45.7% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 20-14-1 | 58.6% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-13-0 | 62.9% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 12-19-4 | 40.0% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-21-1 | 38.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 17-16-2 | 51.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-13-3 | 58.6% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-3 | 82 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-4 | 67 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-7-9 | 64 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-7-10 | 61 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 17-9-9 | 60 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-10 | 53 | 12 |
| Brentford | 15-7-13 | 52 | 9 |
| Brighton | 13-14-8 | 52 | 1 |
| Fulham | 14-9-12 | 51 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-13-11 | 46 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-18 | 41 | -11 |
| Everton | 8-15-12 | 39 | -7 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-16 | 39 | -9 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-19 | 38 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-10-16 | 37 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-21 | 22 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 5-6-24 | 21 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-5-28 | 11 | -57 |
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