- Bournemouth is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Brentford.
- The underdog has won four of Brentford's last six EPL matches.
- I have two Bournemouth vs. Brentford predictions, a side and a bet on the total.
With a chance to bolster their European competition positioning, Bournemouth returns home for a meeting with Brentford.
The Cherries earned a 2-0 advantage over Tottenham on Sunday. However, two late Tottenham goals erased the deficit and resigned Bournemouth to a point.
Brentford fell 1-0 as home favorites to Aston Villa on Saturday. That extended their home winless run to seven matches. In good news, they’ve won two straight on the road.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Brentford prediction.
Bournemouth vs. Brentford: Premier League Odds
Bournemouth vs. Brentford Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s attacking strength, I have two Bournemouth vs. Brentford predictions: Bournemouth Moneyline (-130) & Over 3.5 Goals (+115).
Saturday couldn’t have produced a better spot for Brentford. They played an Aston Villa side with a weak defense on short rest.
When describing the performance from Brentford – eighth in expected goals, fifth in post-shot xG – lifeless would be a complement.
Now they’re playing a Bournemouth side that’s third in both aforementioned offensive categories.
Plus, the Cherries are coming off an undeserved draw. Despite drawing 2-2 with Tottenham, Bournemouth won the match 2.2-1.5 on xG and 2.54-1.1 on post-shot xG.
Although Bournemouth have dropped two straight at home, one came because of an early red card. The other loss? As home underdogs to Liverpool.
Prior to those losses, Bournemouth won three of their last five at the Vitality. Additionally, they rank sixth in expected goal differential per 90 minutes at home.
History also likes this spot to back Bournemouth. Since 2012, home favorites between -142 and -130 are 57-11, assuming two factors:
- The team’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +1
- The team’s game number falls between 12 and 37
Given Bournemouth won the last meeting at Brentford on expected goals, I like them to earn all three points.
As for the over/under, there’s a big mismatch between the Bournemouth attack and Brentford defense.
The Cherries, as referenced earlier, rank third in both key attacking categories. In the reverse fixture, Bournemouth created 2.6 xG and 1.7 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
Only six sides outrank Brentford in expected goals allowed. Meanwhile, Thomas Frank’s defense ranks 12th in post-shot expected goals allowed.
It’s simultaneously a strong matchup for the Brentford attack against a Bournemouth defense 13th in post-shot xGA, per fbref.com.
Given the previous meeting combined to feature five goals off 4.09 xG and 3.52 post-shot xG, I like taking the plus money on another high-scoring match.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 10-13-5 | 44.6% | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-10-1 | 62.5% | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 8-3-2 | 69.2% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16-11-1 | 58.9% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 9-4-1 | 67.9% |
| Chelsea | 10-16-2 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-9-4 | 60.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-15-2 | 42.9% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-15-1 | 44.6% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-19-0 | 32.1% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 11-13-4 | 46.4% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 5-6-2 | 46.2% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-10-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% |
| Southampton | 10-15-3 | 41.1% | 2-10-1 | 19.2% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-16-1 | 41.1% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% |
| West Ham United | 14-13-1 | 51.8% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 9-4-0 | 69.2% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12-13-3 | 48.2% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 15-10-3 | 55 | 28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-6-7 | 51 | 12 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-7 | 49 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 14-5-9 | 47 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-10-6 | 46 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-8 | 44 | 13 |
| Fulham | 11-9-8 | 42 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Brentford | 11-5-12 | 38 | 4 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-14 | 34 | 14 |
| Manchester United | 9-7-12 | 34 | -6 |
| Everton | 7-12-9 | 33 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-6-13 | 33 | -16 |
| Wolves | 6-5-17 | 23 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-17 | 17 | -32 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-19 | 17 | -37 |
| Southampton | 2-3-23 | 9 | -48 |
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