- Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Bournemouth has scored at least once in 18 of its last 19 EPL as a home favorite.
- My Bournemouth vs. Everton prediction depends on Everton injury news.
Off a 2-2 draw as road underdogs against Fulham, Bournemouth returns home on Saturday for a meeting with Everton.
Andoni Iraola’s side finds itself in outstanding form. Including that draw against Fulham, the Cherries are now unbeaten in seven league matches and sit seventh in the table.
Everton’s 2-0 home loss against Forest on Matchday 19 ended a four-match unbeaten run for Sean Dyche’s squad. When these sides met last, Everton blew a 2-0 lead and lost 3-2 late.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Everton prediction.
Bournemouth vs. Everton Odds, Premier League
Bournemouth vs. Everton Prediction
If Dwight McNeil fails to appear for Everton on Saturday, my Bournemouth vs. Everton prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline (-130).
Everton’s defensive record has improved since the last time these sides played, when Everton blew a 2-0 lead in the final 10 minutes.
But without McNeil, their attack lacks any kind of firepower to keep up with decent teams.
That was displayed on Saturday against Forest. Albeit against a better defensive side than Bournemouth, Everton generated only 0.9 expected goals and 0.2 post-shot xG.
Across the entire campaign, McNeil leads Everton with 3.5 expected assists. No other player has more than 1.8, suggesting the Toffees depend on McNeil to create chances.
Now, they’ll face a Bournemouth side that remains a positive regression candidate at home.
Iraola’s side has posted a +4 goal differential at home this season compared to a +8.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Only once this season has Bournemouth lost the expected goals battle at home. That failure against West Ham came as a result of a penalty kick for the visitors.
Now the hosts find themselves against an Everton side with a -0.41 xGDiff per 90 minutes away from home.
Plus, history suggests this is a good spot to back Bournemouth.
Since 2012, home favorites in match 17 onward priced between -152 and +105 are 50-21, assuming two factors:
- The underdog closed a favorite in their previous game
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting was +1 or -1
Shrink the sample down to only games where the favorite won by a single goal, and the record improves to 27-10 (73%), compared to 70% for the generalized system.
Wait for news on McNeil, but it’s Bournemouth or nothing on Saturday.
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