- Bournemouth is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Man United.
- Bournemouth has lost three of its last four EPL matches as a home favorite.
- My Bournemouth vs. Man United prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline.
Two reeling teams meet on Sunday at the Vitality Stadium with Bournemouth hosting Manchester United.
Bournemouth failed to take advantage of a man advantage at Crystal Palace last weekend, playing to a 0-0 draw. Since February 22, Bournemouth has earned only one league win.
Manchester United fell 1-0 as home favorites to Wolves over the weekend, extending their league winless run to four matches. Currently, United sits 14th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Man United prediction.
Bournemouth vs Man United: Premier League Odds
- Bournemouth Moneyline: -150
- Manchester United Moneyline: +375
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-155), “No” (+110)
Man United vs Bournemouth: Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s strong record against weak attacks this season, my Bournemouth vs Man United prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline (-150).
While it’s a lot of juice to lay on a struggling team, Bournemouth arrive at Sunday’s match a massive positive regression candidate at home.
The Cherries own a +6 goal differential at the Vitality Stadium this year compared to a +9.7 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. Only five teams own a superior home xGDiff.
United count themselves amongst the worst road teams this year. Only five teams possess a worse expected goal differential away from home, three of which sit in the relegation zone.
Earlier this season, Bournemouth thoroughly dominated Manchester United. Andoni Iraola’s side captured a 3-0 win at Old Trafford, buoyed by a 2.34-1.45 post-shot xGDiff.
That marks three unbeaten for Bournemouth against United. Across all three meetings, Bournemouth own a +1.95 post-shot xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
Bournemouth have also dominated bad attacks this season.
Against teams that created under 37 post-shot xG for the year, Iraola’s side owns a 6-2-2 (W-D-L) record. However, they’ve won the post-shot xG battle in all 10 matches.
As a function of their result earlier this season, Bournemouth triggered a historically profitable betting system in their direction on Sunday.
Since 2012, home favorites in match 27 onward priced between -152 and -112 are 57-14, assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between +0 and +4
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.4 and 2
As a result, I like backing Bournemouth to earn all three points at home on Sunday.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-15-6 | 45.5% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-4 | 57.6% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 11-22-0 | 33.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-12-3 | 67 | 34 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Manchester City | 17-7-9 | 58 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-8 | 57 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-11-11 | 44 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
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