Brentford Prediction: 2024-25 EPL Betting Preview

The 2023 season was one to forget for Brentford, who fell from 9th in 2022 to 16th in 2023 and faced relegation. 

However, buoyed by the return of Ivan Toney in January, Brentford earned a third of their total points in the final nine matches to secure safety. 

Faced with the prospect of selling Toney this summer, Brentford are rated toward the bottom of the Premier League. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Brentford odds and my betting predictions for Brentford’s campaign. 

Brentford Futures Odds

• League Winner: +50000
• Top-4 Finish: +5000
• Relegation Odds: +400
• Top Goalscorer: Ivan Toney (+2000)

Brentford Notable Permanent Additions

• Igor Thiago, Forward (Club Brugge)

Brentford Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season

Oddsmakers are pricing Brentford as if they’re amongst the seven worst teams in the league. However, I predict Brentford can challenge for a top-half spot this season. 

Despite losing 1,702 combined days to injury, the Bees still managed to post the eighth-best expected goal differential in the English top flight. 

Two key injuries derailed their campaign. Left-wing back Rico Henry tore his ACL after five games, and right-wing back Aaron Hickey started only five contests. 

Henry’s absence is the most notable. Over the last two years, he’s started 41 league games with Brentford and played at least 45 minutes. 

The Bees dropped all three points only nine times in those 41 contests. 

Plus, Brentford’s injury woes on defense led to a significant dropoff in their underlying metrics. 

Year over year, Brentford went from fifth to 8th in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and seventh to 10th in non-penalty xGA per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

Even amidst all their injuries and Toney’s suspension for the first half of the season, Brentford finished with a -9 goal differential compared to a +2.2 expected goal differential. 

All told, Brentford earned 39 points off 53 expected points. Only Nottingham Forest had a bigger underperformance. 

One final metric worth noting that should improve with better defensive play. 

In 2022-23, Brentford proved one of the best frontrunners in the Premier League. They led 22 times that year and went 15-6-1 (W-D-L) from those positions. 

Last year, they took the lead 22 times and managed a dismal 10-6-6 (W-D-L) record. 

With a healthier backline, expect Brentford’s attack to keep pace and for the team as a whole to drastically improve next season.