- Brentford is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
- Brentford has lost each of its last seven EPL night matches following a win.
- My Brentford vs. Man City prediction focuses on the pregame total.
Two teams off blowout wins meet on Tuesday in London as Brentford hosts Manchester City.
The Bees ended a four-match winless run with a 5-0 win over Southampton on Matchday 20. After that result, the Bees sit 11th in the league table.
City, buoyed by a Kevin De Bruyne start, blitzed West Ham 4-1 at home, their second straight league win. Still, City sits sixth in the league table, two points out of a top-four spot.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs. Man City prediction.
Brentford vs. Man City Odds, Premier League
Brentford vs. Man City Prediction
Based on the amount of chances in Manchester and Brentford’s injury absentees in defense, my Brentford vs. Man City prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (-110).
The reverse fixture in Manchester finished 2-1 in City’s favor. However, the match proved unlucky not to clear 3.5 goals.
Brentford, in particular, ran unlucky, scoring once off 2.28 post-shot expected goals. City ran in line with expectations, scoring twice off 2.09 expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Bettors should expect a similar output from the City attack on Tuesday.
Brentford’s current injury list includes central defenders Ethan Pinnock and Ben Mee. Without that pair, Brentford conceded 3.16 post-shot xG in their last home match against Arsenal.
Thomas Frank’s side has also conceded at least two post-shot xG in three straight meetings with Manchester City.
At the same time, Brentford has failed to score only once at home this season. That came against Nottingham Forest, a superior defense to Manchester City.
As it stands, Man City ranks ninth in post-shot expected goals allowed and has kept only two clean sheets away from home.
History also likes this match clearing 3.5 goals.
Since 2021, matches featuring a total of 3.5 goals are 15-5 to the over, assuming three factors:
- The home team is the underdog
- The road team’s average number of goals falls between 1.6 and 2.5
- The road team’s last match cleared the total by at least 1.5 goals
When Man City is involved in the match, over 3.5 has hit in five of six over the same span.
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