Chelsea Prediction: 2024-25 EPL Betting Preview

After a second consecutive missed Champions League, Chelsea elected for some changes this summer. 

Most notably, they sacked manager Mauricio Pochettino and hired Enzo Maresca, a Pep Guardiola disciple who guided Leicester City to promotion last year. 

Maresca will attempt to secure Champions League football for Chelsea, who earned maximum points in their final five matches last season. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Chelsea odds and my betting predictions for Chelsea’s campaign. 

Chelsea Futures Odds

• League Winner: +1600
• Top-4 Finish: +150
• Relegation Odds: +2500
• Top Goalscorer: Cole Palmer (+1600), Nicholas Jackson (+3300)

Chelsea Notable Permanent Additions

• Enzo Maresca, Manager (Leicester City)
• Filip Jorgenson, Goalkeeper (Villarreal)
• Tosin Adarabioyo, Defender (Fulham)
• Marc Guiu, Attacker (Barcelona)
• Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Midfielder (Leicester City)

Chelsea Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season

Predicting Chelsea’s season is difficult, mainly because I rate the Blues, Newcastle United and Tottenham very similarly. 

If you’re bullish on Chelsea, I’d almost rather bet them To Win the League at +1600 than +150 for a top-4 finish. 

Despite finishing sixth in the table last year, Chelsea posted the fourth-best expected goal differential. 

Plus, they counted themselves amongst the most injured teams in the Premier League. Last year, they sustained the second-most player injuries and lost the third-most combined days. 

However, working against Chelsea, they proved very reliant on penalty kicks. 

Excluding all penalty kicks, Chelsea posted a +11 non-penalty expected goal differential compared to a +8 non-penalty goal differential, per fbref.com. 

Comparatively, they posted a +16.4 expected goal differential vs. a +14 expected goal differential, inclusive of penalties. 

Additionally, I worry tremendously about Chelsea’s ability to punch up in weight class. 

Over the last two years, Chelsea is 1-17 SU and 8-10 ATS as underdogs. 

Their two challengers for the final UCL spot — Tottenham and Newcastle — are much better. Spurs are 7-20 SU and 15-12 ATS, while Newcastle is 6-13 SU and 11-7-1 ATS. 

That makes it difficult to bet Chelsea to snatch the final Champions League spot. Plus, they play nine of their first 11 games against teams 12th or better last season. 

For those reasons, Chelsea present a better live betting opportunity to reach the top four.