- Chelsea is a -1.5-goal home favorite against West Ham.
- The 2H Over 0.5 market has hit in each of West Ham's last 31 EPL away matches.
- My Chelsea vs. West Ham prediction focuses on the opening 30 minutes.
To cap off Matchday 24 in the Premier League, Chelsea host West Ham United in a London derby.
The Blues started well against Manchester City and captured a lead after three minutes. However, three City goals resigned Enzo Maresca’s side to a loss.
West Ham, meanwhile, erased a deficit against Aston Villa with a second-half goal. Now, they’ll look to end a two-match losing streak against Chelsea.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. West Ham prediction.
Chelsea vs. West Ham Odds, Premier League
Chelsea vs. West Ham Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s strong starts, particularly at home, and West Ham’s slow first halves, my Chelsea vs. West Ham prediction is Chelsea Moneyline: First 30 Minutes (+135).
This is one of those bets that almost feels a bit too easy. That said, all the metrics point to oddsmakers pricing Chelsea too high.
The Blues are 12-7-4 (W-D-L) in the opening 30 minutes this season. At home, they improve to 7-3-1, with two of those failures coming as home underdogs.
Per understat.com, Chelsea owns a +9.4 expected goal differential in the opening 30 minutes.
The Blues also earned a 2-0 advantage inside 30 minutes at West Ham earlier this season. From a metrics standpoint, they captured a +0.82 post-shot xG edge, per fotmob.com.
Conversely, West Ham owns a horrific record inside the opening 30 minutes.
The Hammers are 2-10-11 (W-D-L) inside the first 30 minutes this season. Away from home, that record is 2-3-6.
The metrics for West Ham are simultaneously worrisome. Over those 23 matches, West Ham possesses a -8.02 expected goal differential inside the opening half hour.
It gets worse for the Hammers.
West Ham has played seven matches this season against teams sixth or better in post-shot xGF – Chelsea ranks second in that category.
West Ham posted a 0-1-6 (W-D-L) record inside the first 30 minutes with a -5.47 post-shot xGDiff.
Chelsea, meanwhile, has played six matches against teams with a bottom-five post-shot xGA rating – West Ham ranks 16th – with only one of those matches coming at home.
Despite that fact, Chelsea is 4-1-1 (W-D-L) inside the first 30 minutes with a +6.19 post-shot xGDiff, per fbref.com,
As a result, take the plus money and back Chelsea at home.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Apr. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | St. James' Park |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
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