- Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Aston Villa.
- The road team has won each of Crystal Palace’s last six EPL matches.
- My Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa prediction is the Palace spread.
Continuing their pursuit of a European position, Aston Villa travel to London for a meeting with Crystal Palace.
Villa earned a 2-1 home win over Chelsea on Saturday following a midweek draw against Liverpool. After those results, Villa sit seventh in the league table.
Palace continued their positive form with a 2-0 road win over Fulham on Matchday 26. Still, Oliver Glasner’s side sits 13th in the table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Odds, Premier League
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Based on Aston Villa’s poor record on short rest and Crystal Palace’s expected positive regression, my Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa prediction is Palace Draw, No Bet (-130).
Villa, up until Saturday’s win over Chelsea, had yet to capture an outright victory on short rest.
Now, they’ll travel on limited prep time to face a Palace side that has run very unlucky this season.
Glasner’s side owns a -1 goal differential compared to a +3.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. At home, it’s a -9 goal differential vs. a +1.8 expected goal differential.
By post-shot expected goal differential, Palace possesses a -1 goal differential vs. a +2.5 post-shot xGDiff.
Palace gave Villa all they could handle in the reverse fixture at Villa Park, where Aston Villa generally perform better.
Without talisman Eberechi Eze, Palace drew 2-2 with Villa.
Granted, the result proved a bit flattering – Villa edged out Palace 3.1-1.3 on xG and 2.8-1.9 on post-shot xG – but it came with a full week to prepare.
Now, Palace possess all their key attacking pieces with positive momentum off a win as underdogs. Historically, that’s a good spot for Palace on Tuesday.
Since 2012, hosts between -112 and +252 off a win as underdogs are 54-58 SU, assuming the opponent’s previous game margin is +1 or -1.
Within that 110-game sample, those hosts dropped all three points only 30 times. When they’re listed as a favorite, they’re 59-17 vs. +0.5.
Pair that with Palace’s expected regression, and I like Palace to earn at least a point on Tuesday at Selhurst Park.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | Feb. 25 | 1:30 p.m. | Selhurt |
| Brighton | Bournemouth | Feb. 25 | 1:30 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Wolves | Fulham | Feb. 25 | 1:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Chelsea | Southampton | Feb. 25 | 2:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Brentford | Everton | Feb. 26 | 1:30 p.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | Feb. 26 | 1:30 p.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester United | Ipswich Town | Feb. 26 | 1:30 p.m. | Old Trafford |
| Tottenham | Manchester City | Feb. 26 | 1:30 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Liverpool | Newcastle United | Feb. 26 | 2:15 p.m. | Anfield |
| West Ham United | Leicester City | Feb. 27 | 2 p.m. | London Stadium |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 10-12-5 | 46.3% | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Aston Villa | 10-17-1 | 37.5% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 5-8-0 | 38.5% |
| Bournemouth | 17-10-0 | 63.0% | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Brentford | 16-9-2 | 63.0% | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | 8-3-2 | 69.2% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 15-11-1 | 57.4% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% | 9-4-1 | 67.9% |
| Chelsea | 10-15-2 | 40.7% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 15-9-3 | 61.1% | 5-6-3 | 46.4% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-9-3 | 61.1% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Fulham | 16-9-2 | 63.0% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 9-2-2 | 76.9% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-14-2 | 44.4% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Leicester City | 11-15-1 | 42.6% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 6-6-1 | 50.0% |
| Liverpool | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-18-0 | 33.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% |
| Manchester United | 10-13-4 | 44.4% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 5-6-2 | 46.2% |
| Newcastle United | 14-12-1 | 53.7% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-10-0 | 63.0% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% |
| Southampton | 9-15-3 | 38.9% | 2-10-1 | 19.2% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-16-0 | 40.7% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% |
| West Ham United | 14-12-1 | 53.7% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 9-4-0 | 69.2% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12-13-2 | 48.1% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 20-7-1 | 67 | 40 |
| Arsenal | 15-9-3 | 54 | 28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-6-7 | 48 | 11 |
| Manchester City | 14-5-8 | 47 | 16 |
| Chelsea | 13-7-7 | 46 | 16 |
| Newcastle United | 13-5-9 | 44 | 8 |
| Bournemouth | 12-7-8 | 43 | 13 |
| Brighton | 11-10-6 | 43 | 5 |
| Fulham | 11-9-7 | 42 | 4 |
| Aston Villa | 11-9-8 | 42 | -5 |
| Brentford | 11-5-11 | 38 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 9-9-9 | 36 | 2 |
| Tottenham | 10-3-14 | 33 | 14 |
| Manchester United | 9-6-12 | 33 | -6 |
| West Ham | 9-6-12 | 33 | -15 |
| Everton | 7-11-9 | 32 | -4 |
| Wolves | 6-4-17 | 22 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-16 | 17 | -31 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-18 | 17 | -36 |
| Southampton | 2-3-22 | 9 | -46 |
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