- Crystal Palace is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- Bournemouth has won three of its last four EPL Saturday away matches.
- My Crystal Palace vs. Bournemouth prediction is the total over 2.5 goals.
On the heels of a home win against Fulham, Bournemouth travels to London for a Saturday fixture against Crystal Palace.
The Cherries scored inside 120 seconds against Fulham, with no goals the rest of the way. The win vaults Bournemouth into eighth and ends a six-match winless run.
Crystal Palace fell 5-2 over the weekend against Manchester City and faces a trip to Newcastle on Wednesday. Earlier this season, these sides played to a 0-0 draw.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth: Premier League Odds
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +138
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +185
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-165), “No” (+120)
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace: Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s expected offensive regression and their high-scoring road fixtures, my Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-145).
Don’t let the 1-0 scoreline against Fulham on Monday fool you. That match should have easily cleared 2.5 goals.
Bournemouth’s defensive luck continued as they surrendered no goals off 1.4 expected goals and 1.1 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
But their offense also ran unlucky. Bournemouth scored once off 1.9 xG and post-shot xG.
Those trends are indicative of the entire season for Bournemouth.
Even before Monday’s match, Bournemouth fixtures accumulated 91 goals off 97.5 expected goals and 104.7 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
Saturday is the perfect spot to buy regression against a Palace side traveling on short rest.
This season, Bournemouth road matches average 3.3 expected goals per 90, with 11 straight clearing 2.5 goals.
Most of that output comes from Bournemouth, who have scored at least twice in 10 of their last 11 road matches.
But their defense simultaneously leaves much to be desired.
Andoni Iraola’s side owns zero deserved clean sheets away from home and has conceded at least twice in three straight and five of their previous seven.
Now, they get a Palace side that has run super unlucky at home. Entering Saturday’s match, Oliver Glasner’s side scored 19 goals off 26 expected at home, per fbref.com.
It’s also a historically profitable spot to back the over.
Since last season, fixtures with a total at 2.5 goals are 53-21 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 1.9
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.9
When Bournemouth is the road team under that scenario: 4-0 to over 2.5 goals with two clearing 3.5.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Apr. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | St. James' Park |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
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