- Crystal Palace is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Crystal Palace has won five of its last six EPL matches following a league draw.
- My Crystal Palace vs. Nottm Forest prediction is the Crystal Palace moneyline.
Over a week after reaching the FA Cup final, Crystal Palace hosts Nottingham Forest at Selhurst Park.
Oliver Glasner’s side sits mid-table in the Premier League and are unbeaten in three straight across all competitions. Palace have also earned points in four straight at home.
For Forest, Monday’s match will mark their second game in five days after facing Brentford on Thursday. Earlier this season, Forest beat Palace 1-0 at home.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs. Nottm Forest prediction.
Crystal Palace vs. Nottm Forest: Premier League Odds
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +135
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +200
- Draw Moneyline: +230
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-105/-135)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-130), “No” (-110)
Nottm Forest vs Crystal Palace: Prediction
Based on Crystal Palace’s expected positive regression at home and the short rest spot for Forest, my Crystal Palace vs. Nottm Forest prediction is the Crystal Palace Moneyline (+135).
Above all else, this match represents a case of positive regression vs negative regression.
For the season, Palace have run very unlucky at home. Glasner’s side posted a -4 goal differential vs. a +6.6 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Meanwhile, Forest has run incredibly lucky away from home. The Tricky Trees own a +1 road goal differential against a -5.7 expected goal differential.
That regression should be expected to come on Monday for Palace, which owns a massive rest advantage over Forest.
The visitors, as noted earlier, play at home on Thursday before traveling to London for Monday’s match.
Palace received an extended break between games as their last fixture came last Saturday in the FA Cup semis.
Additionally, I like the prospect of buying a Palace team off two straight results as underdogs, including a 2-2 draw at Arsenal in their last league match.
While they’ve played a match in between, short home favorites off a result as underdogs tend to excel.
Since 2012, home favorites between +105 and +145 are 45-28 SU, assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between -4 and -1
- The previous game the favorite closed as a market underdog
Since 2020, those favorites are 13-6 straight up (SU) for a 68% return on investment. As a result, I like Palace to earn all three points.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Manchester City | Wolves | May. 2 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 21-11-2 | 64.7% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-13-0 | 61.8% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-10 | 60 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 14-7-13 | 49 | 8 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
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