Everton Prediction: 2024 EPL Betting Preview

The story of Everton’s 2023-24 campaign concerned their off-field activity. 

The Toffees found themselves amidst a relegation battle after an eight-point deduction for breaching Premier League financial rules. 

However, they picked up 17 points in their final nine matches to stay in the English top flight. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Everton odds and my betting predictions for Everton’s campaign. 

Everton Futures Odds

• League Winner: +50000
• Top-Half Finish: +350
• Bottom-Half Finish: -550
• Relegation Odds: +150

Everton Notable Permanent Additions

• Jake O’Brien, Defender (Lyon)
• Tim Iroegbunam, Midfielder (Aston Villa)
• Iliman Ndiaye, Midfielder (Marseille)

Everton Prediction, 2024 Premier League

I predict the best bet to make is for the Toffees to finish inside the top half (+350). 

Last year, Everton posted a -11 goal differential compared to a +0.5 xGDiff. Accordingly, they underperformed their expected points output by 5.1 points, both per understat.com.

A lot of that underperformance can be attributed to their attack’s inability to hit the target. 

Here are some key Everton rankings from last season:

• Expected Goals: 11th
• Non-Penalty Expected Goals: 12th
• Shots Per 90: 11th

Here’s where Everton fell apart:

• Post-Shot Expected Goals: 18th
• Goals per Shot: 19th
• Shots on Target Percentage: 20th

To see if Everton might positively regress, I went back a season and tested whether other teams posted similar metrics and improved the following year. 

One did. 

In 2022-23, West Ham United posted the following offensive metrics and underperformed their expected point total by 11.62 points. 

• Expected Goals: 11th
• Non-Penalty Expected Goals: 13th
• Shots Per 90: 9th

• Post-Shot Expected Goals: 15th
• Goals per Shot: 17th
• Shots on Target Percentage: 20th

Last season, West Ham drastically improved. They jumped from 14th to 9th in the league while earning 14 extra points. 

They did that despite dropping from 13th to 15th in npxG per 90. However, they improved by five spots in psxG, eight spots in goals per shot and seven spots in shots on target percentage. 

If Everton can find the target more consistently, it’s their outstanding defense that should guide them into the top half. 

Last year, Everton opponents received eight penalty kicks, tied for second most in the league. 

Despite that fact, Everton still ranked sixth in xG per 90 minutes and fourth in npxG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

If Everton can keep up those metrics, there’s a strong case for them breaching the top 10 next season.