- Everton is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Aston Villa.
- The home team has won seven of Aston Villa's last eight EPL matches.
- My Everton vs. Aston Villa prediction depends on Everton’s personnel.
Everton’s first Premier League fixture since sacking Sean Dyche sees the Toffees host Aston Villa.
Everton’s five-match winless run doomed Dyche, who helmed an Everton side that currently sits 16th in the league table. Their last league win came in a 4-0 win over Wolves on December 4.
Aston Villa’s current form has seen mixed results. Unai Emery’s squad sits eighth in the league table with a 4-1-2 (W-D-L) record in their previous seven league matches.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Everton vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Everton vs. Aston Villa Odds, Premier League
Everton vs. Aston Villa Prediction
If Dwight McNeil starts and Jarrad Branthwaite doesn’t start for Everton, my Everton vs. Aston Villa prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (+100).
This total strikes me as extremely low, given the 3-2 scoreline in the previous meeting.
It also represents, in theory, a battle of styles. Everton home matches are averaging 2.36 expected goals per 90 minutes, while Villa road matches are averaging three xG per 90.
But with Dyche’s exit, there’s a possibility Everton switch to a less defensive style. Plus, if McNeil returns, the Toffees get back a player who leads the team in expected assists.
Not since December 4 has McNeil started a match for the Toffees. In the five subsequent league matches, none cleared 2.5 goals, with Everton scoring only once.
That potentially forced a more defensive approach from Everton in an effort to earn points.
The good news for Everton? Only six sides have allowed more expected goals away from home than Villa, which conceded 1.15 post-shot xG to Everton at home.
Even if you sample Villa’s defensive record against Leicester City and Ipswich Town, bettors will find Villa conceded 0.8 xG per 90 and 1.4 post-shot xG per 90.
There’s also the fact both teams will play on short rest in a spot where the over has historically performed well.
Since last season, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals are 51-18 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The home team’s previous game margin falls between -5 and -1
- The road team’s average number of goals falls between 1.3 and 2.3
When the road team’s average falls between 1.3 and 1.5: 18-8 to the over, including 6-3 this season.
As a result, it would be goals or nothing for me on Wednesday at Goodison Park.
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