- Everton is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has won each of its last five EPL Week 15 away matches.
- My Everton vs. Liverpool prediction is to focus on the second half.
The latest edition of the Merseyside Derby leads the Matchday 14 Premier League slate as Everton hosts Liverpool.
The Toffees blitzed Wolves 4-0 in the midweek, avenging a 4-0 defeat at Manchester United last week. In the last meeting with Liverpool, Everton captured a 2-0 home win.
Liverpool used a strong second half to earn a 3-3 draw at Newcastle United. However, the dropped points shrunk Liverpool’s title lead from nine to seven points.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Everton vs. Liverpool prediction.
Everton vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -1.5 (+105) | 2.5 (-165) | -250 |
| Everton | +1.5 (-145) | 2.5 (+120) | +625 |
| Draw | +380 |
Everton vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on Liverpool’s strong metrics in the second half and the short rest factor, my Everton vs. Liverpool prediction is the Liverpool 2H Moneyline (-155).
It’s a steep price to pay on the visitors, but this market offers a nice alternative than laying -250 for the game.
This season, it has taken Liverpool some time to get their attack flowing.
Arne Slot’s side has created 11.72 xG in the first half compared to 22.13 xG in the second half, per understat.com.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Liverpool attack is slow out of the gates in this spot.
The Reds have to play their second straight road game in the earliest window, while Everton play their second straight home game.
That differential might be enough to counterbalance the fact Everton are generally worse in the first half.
Sean Dyche’s side owns a -5.3 xGDiff in the opening half compared to a +1.01 xGDiff in the second, again per understat.com.
But Everton actually performed well as home unders in the first half earlier this season.
As home dogs to Newcastle, Everton surrendered only 0.34 non-penalty xG and 0.07 non-penalty post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
Everton accomplished that feat without a starting right back and their top choice central defender.
As a result, I’m confident in Everton’s ability to keep this close early and potentially snatch an early advantage.
However, Slot’s halftime adjustments should give Liverpool the edge in the second half.
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