- Everton is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home favorite against Man City.
- Manchester City has won seven straight EPL away matches against Everton.
- My Everton vs. Man City prediction is Everton to cover the spread.
Two teams off outright wins meet on Saturday at Goodison Park with Everton hosting Manchester City.
Everton used a late goal to hand Nottingham Forest a 1-0 defeat on Saturday. That marks the 11th match in Everton’s last 12 in which they’ve earned at least a point.
Man City stumbled out of the gates against Crystal Palace, falling behind 2-0 inside half an hour. But five unanswered goals gave City a second win in their last three games.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Everton vs. Man City prediction.
Everton vs Man City: Premier League Odds
- Everton Moneyline: +275
- Man City Moneyline: -105
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-130/-110)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-145), “No” (+105)
Man City vs Everton: Prediction
Based on Everton’s recent success under David Moyes and their result at Man City earlier this season, my Everton vs Man City prediction is the Everton Spread (+0.5, -125).
As referenced earlier, Everton dropped points only once since appointing Moyes. That failure? On the road against league leaders Liverpool.
City have seen improvement since the January transfer window, but a lot of that success has come at home.
For the entire season, City own a +0.84 expected goal differential per 90 minutes at home. On the road, that differential drops to +0.06.
Even if you include the non-Moyes period, Everton owns a +0.00 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home. Since appointing Moyes, Everton owns a +0.67 xGDiff per 90 at home.
Most of that can be attributed to a 4-0 win over Leicester City, but this is also an Everton side that has stayed within this number against both Liverpool and Arsenal on post-shot xG.
While Everton ran slightly lucky in their 1-1 draw at Man City earlier this season, the venue switch matters so much.
This season, Everton has dropped points only four times at home. City, meanwhile, earned all three points only six times in 16 road fixtures.
Even more concerning for City is their road record against top defenses. Through six trips to teams better than City (9th) in post-shot xGA, Pep Guardiola’s side is 0-2-4 (W-D-L).
Everton rank fourth in that metric and match the historical profile of a dog that has a chance to win this match outright.
Since 2012, dogs that closed as an underdog in their previous match are 34-86 SU and 67-52 ATS, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result falls between -1 and +0
- The opponent’s previous game margin falls between +2 and +4
- The dog’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
When those dogs close at +340 or shorter on the moneyline: 18-29 SU, 35-12 ATS.
As a result, I like the Toffees to earn points on Saturday against Man City.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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