- Everton is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Tottenham.
- Tottenham has conceded at least one goal in each of its last 11 EPL day matches.
- My Everton vs. Tottenham prediction is for Tottenham to avoid defeat.
Two teams off midweek defeats meet on Sunday at Goodison Park with Everton hosting Tottenham.
The Toffees, in their first match under David Moyes, fell 1-0 at home to Aston Villa. As it stands, Everton sit on 17 points, good for 16th in the league table.
Tottenham’s struggles continued with a 2-1 loss to rivals Arsenal, despite taking a 1-0 lead. That loss, the second straight for Spus, keeps them 13th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Everton vs. Tottenham prediction.
Everton vs. Tottenham Odds, Premier League
Everton vs. Tottenham Prediction
Based on Tottenham’s success against bad teams off a loss and Everton’s lack of attacking prowess, my Everton vs. Tottenham prediction is Tottenham Draw, No Bet (-135).
Confirm that Dwight McNeil isn’t playing for Everton before making this bet. Assuming he fails to return, Everton’s attack should continue struggling to create chances.
For all of Tottenham’s issues over the last two years, Ange Postecoglou has them playing at their best off a loss against an inferior team.
Postecoglou is 10-2 SU off a loss as Tottenham boss and has avoided defeat in all 12 of those matches.
While most of those matches saw Tottenham close as a healthy favorite, they thoroughly dominated Everton in the last meeting.
Spurs throttled Everton 4-0 on Matchday 2 with a 2.56-0.14 edge on post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
They’re also unbeaten in eight against Everton and have dropped all three points only four times in the last 29 meetings with the Toffees.
What’s more is that Spurs’ midweek defeat came undeserved by underlying metrics. They fell to Arsenal 2-1, but Spurs captured a 0.91-0.27 edge on post-shot xG.
Even by expected goals, Arsenal only carried a 1.4-0.8 edge, suggesting a lucky win.
History also tells us the likeliest outcome in this match is a Tottenham victory.
Since 2012, road favorites off a loss against a previous dog are 23-9 SU, assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s moneyline falls between -151 and +151
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 31% and 40%
Those teams have also earned points in 28 of 32, including 15 of 16 when priced between +100 and +151 on the three-way moneyline.
As a result, grab Tottenham to earn points on Sunday at Goodison Park.
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