- Everton is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
- Wolves has won four of its last five EPL matches as an underdog against Everton.
- My Everton vs. Wolves prediction is Wolves to cover the spread.
Two sides off poor losses meet Wednesday at Goodison Park, with Everton hosting Wolves.
Everton traveled to Old Trafford on Sunday for a meeting with Manchester United. It didn’t go well for Sean Dyche’s side, which fell 4-0 and currently sits only two points from safety.
Wolves suffered a 4-2 home defeat against Bournemouth on Matchday 13. The result proved a bit misleading, though, as three of Bournemouth’s four goals came via penalty kicks.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Everton vs. Wolves prediction.
Everton vs. Wolves Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | +0.5 (-145) | 2.5 (-120) | +240 |
| Everton | -0.5 (+100) | 2.5 (-120) | +110 |
| Draw | +250 |
Everton vs. Wolves Prediction
Based on Wolves’ strong record against Everton and the visitors’ strong offensive record, my Everton vs. Wolves prediction is the Wolves Spread (+0.5, -145).
This shapes up as a terrible spot for Everton, which is winless in six against Wolves and finds itself in a historically terrible spot.
Since 2012, half-goal road underdogs against previous road underdogs in games 2-14 are 74% ATS, assuming the juice on the spread falls between -175 and -104.
That works even better when the dog closed an underdog in their previous game.
Under those circumstances, the dogs improve to 60-18 (76.9%) ATS, including 32-6 when the favorite lost their last game outright.
I also love this spot on Wolves, which lost 4-2 vs. Bournemouth on Saturday.
However, Wolves limited a strong Bournemouth attack to 0.92 non-penalty xG and 1.31 non-penalty post-shot xG.
Three penalty kicks makes the result look worse than the final score indicated, though. But it’s slightly reassuring non-penalty post-shot xG finished 1.31-1.22 in Bournemouth’s favor.
Gary O’Neil’s side has also recorded strong metrics as a road underdog recently.
They won 4-1 at Fulham in spite of late money supporting the hosts and snatched a 2-2 road draw against Brighton.
In each of those matches, Wolves edged out the hosts on post-shot expected goals.
Although Wolves earned only one point in four prior road games this season, they get an Everton team with only two outright victories this season.
As a result, it’s Wolves or nothing for me on Wednesday at Goodison Park.
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