- Fulham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- Each of Fulham's last five EPL Sunday day matches have resulted in a draw.
- My Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction is for Fulham to earn all three points.
It’s a London Derby on Sunday at Craven Cottage with Fulham hosting Tottenham Hotspur.
Fulham conceded a late penalty to fall 2-1 at Brighton on Matchday 28. It’s only the fifth time this season Fulham failed to cover the spread away from home.
Tottenham fell behind 2-0 at home against Bournemouth but stormed back with two late goals to rescue a point. Still, Tottenham sit 13th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction.
Fulham vs. Tottenham: Premier League Odds
Fulham vs. Tottenham Prediction
Based on Fulham’s bad luck against Brighton and Tottenham’s short rest spot, my Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction is the Fulham Moneyline (+100).
Fulham arrive at Sunday’s clash a major positive regression candidate at home.
Marco Silva’s side sits on a -1 goal differential at Craven Cottage compared to a +2.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
This could be the spot to back that regression is coming. They’ll get Tottenham on short rest off a thoroughly undeserved result at home.
Spurs drew 2-2 against Bournemouth, but Ange Postecoglou’s side lost the match 2.54-1.1 on post-shot xG and 2.54-0.32 if you remove Tottenham’s penalty kick.
A similar fate befell Fulham, which lost the match on a last-gasp Brighton penalty.
Plus, Fulham have dominated Tottenham of late.
They edged Tottenham 1.66-1.05 on post-shot xG in the reverse fixture and captured a 2.6-0.86 edge on post-shot xG in the last meeting at Craven Cottage.
Tottenham also faces a Thursday Europa League match at home that’s must win. Accordingly, there could be a rotated lineup on Sunday at Craven Cottage.
History also likes this spot to back Fulham.
Since 2012, favorites between -119 and +113 against a previous underdog are 54-28 SU, assuming two factors:
- The opposing team’s win percentage falls between 25% and 43%
- The favorite’s previous game margin is -1 or +1
Those favorites are 32-12 SU coming off a one-goal defeat and 31-13 SU as home favorites, irrespective of the result.
But when they’re a home favorite off a one-goal loss, those favorites improve to 19-7 SU.
As a result, I like Fulham to earn all three points on Sunday in London.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 10-13-5 | 44.6% | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-10-1 | 62.5% | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 8-3-2 | 69.2% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16-11-1 | 58.9% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 9-4-1 | 67.9% |
| Chelsea | 10-16-2 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-9-4 | 60.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-15-2 | 42.9% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-15-1 | 44.6% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-19-0 | 32.1% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 11-13-4 | 46.4% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 5-6-2 | 46.2% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-10-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% |
| Southampton | 10-15-3 | 41.1% | 2-10-1 | 19.2% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-16-1 | 41.1% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% |
| West Ham United | 14-13-1 | 51.8% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 9-4-0 | 69.2% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12-13-3 | 48.2% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 15-10-3 | 55 | 28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-6-7 | 51 | 12 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-7 | 49 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 14-5-9 | 47 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-10-6 | 46 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-8 | 44 | 13 |
| Fulham | 11-9-8 | 42 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Brentford | 11-5-12 | 38 | 4 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-14 | 34 | 14 |
| Manchester United | 9-7-12 | 34 | -6 |
| Everton | 7-12-9 | 33 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-6-13 | 33 | -16 |
| Wolves | 6-5-17 | 23 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-17 | 17 | -32 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-19 | 17 | -37 |
| Southampton | 2-3-23 | 9 | -48 |
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