- Fulham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- Each of Fulham's last five EPL Sunday day matches have resulted in a draw.
- My Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction is for Fulham to earn all three points.
It’s a London Derby on Sunday at Craven Cottage with Fulham hosting Tottenham Hotspur.
Fulham conceded a late penalty to fall 2-1 at Brighton on Matchday 28. It’s only the fifth time this season Fulham failed to cover the spread away from home.
Tottenham fell behind 2-0 at home against Bournemouth but stormed back with two late goals to rescue a point. Still, Tottenham sit 13th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction.
Fulham vs. Tottenham: Premier League Odds
- Fulham Moneyline: +100
- Tottenham Moneyline: +230
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Game Spread: Fulham -0.5 (-110), Tottenham +0.5 (-130)
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-200/+140)
Fulham vs. Tottenham Prediction
Based on Fulham’s bad luck against Brighton and Tottenham’s short rest spot, my Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction is the Fulham Moneyline (+100).
Fulham arrive at Sunday’s clash a major positive regression candidate at home.
Marco Silva’s side sits on a -1 goal differential at Craven Cottage compared to a +2.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
This could be the spot to back that regression is coming. They’ll get Tottenham on short rest off a thoroughly undeserved result at home.
Spurs drew 2-2 against Bournemouth, but Ange Postecoglou’s side lost the match 2.54-1.1 on post-shot xG and 2.54-0.32 if you remove Tottenham’s penalty kick.
A similar fate befell Fulham, which lost the match on a last-gasp Brighton penalty.
Plus, Fulham have dominated Tottenham of late.
They edged Tottenham 1.66-1.05 on post-shot xG in the reverse fixture and captured a 2.6-0.86 edge on post-shot xG in the last meeting at Craven Cottage.
Tottenham also faces a Thursday Europa League match at home that’s must win. Accordingly, there could be a rotated lineup on Sunday at Craven Cottage.
History also likes this spot to back Fulham.
Since 2012, favorites between -119 and +113 against a previous underdog are 54-28 SU, assuming two factors:
- The opposing team’s win percentage falls between 25% and 43%
- The favorite’s previous game margin is -1 or +1
Those favorites are 32-12 SU coming off a one-goal defeat and 31-13 SU as home favorites, irrespective of the result.
But when they’re a home favorite off a one-goal loss, those favorites improve to 19-7 SU.
As a result, I like Fulham to earn all three points on Sunday in London.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-17-6 | 42.9% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 19-14-2 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-2 | 65.7% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 19-15-1 | 55.7% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 13-19-3 | 41.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-12-6 | 57.1% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-2 | 42.9% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-17-2 | 48.6% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-23-0 | 34.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-17-4 | 45.7% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 20-14-1 | 58.6% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-13-0 | 61.8% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-19-4 | 40.0% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-21-1 | 38.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 17-16-2 | 51.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-13-3 | 58.6% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-3 | 82 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-4 | 67 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-7-9 | 64 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-10 | 60 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 17-9-9 | 60 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-10 | 53 | 12 |
| Brentford | 15-7-13 | 52 | 9 |
| Brighton | 13-14-8 | 52 | 1 |
| Fulham | 14-9-12 | 51 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-18 | 41 | -11 |
| Everton | 8-15-12 | 39 | -7 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-16 | 39 | -9 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-19 | 38 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-10-16 | 37 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-21 | 22 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 5-6-24 | 21 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-5-28 | 11 | -57 |
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