- Ipswich Town is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
- Ipswich has conceded at least one goal in each of its last 12 EPL matches.
- My Ipswich Town vs. Newcastle prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Two teams off wins look to continue their momentum as Ipswich Town hosts Newcastle United on Saturday.
Kieran McKenna’s side snatched a 2-1 win over Wolves late on Matchday 16. That moved the Tractor Boys from nine to 12 points, two points behind Leicester City for safety.
Newcastle earned a convincing 4-0 home win over Leicester City on Matchday 16, ending a four-match winless run in the league. Currently, the Magpies sit 12th in the table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Ipswich Town vs. Newcastle prediction.
Ipswich Town vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | -0.5 (-150) | 2.5 (-165) | -140 |
| Ipswich Town | +0.5 (+105) | 2.5 (+120) | +350 |
| Draw | +290 |
Ipswich Town vs. Newcastle Prediction
Based on Ipswich Town’s eventful home matches and Newcastle’s short rest, my Ipswich Town vs. Newcastle prediction is a SGP: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-120).
It appears as though Newcastle’s inconsistent attacking results are starting to take a turn for the better.
Over their last three matches, Eddie Howe guided the Magpies to 7.4 expected goals, including 3.8 in their last match against Leicester City.
That match marks the defensive side closest in quality to Ipswich Town. Entering the weekend, Leicester allow 2.04 non-penalty xG per 90 while Ipswich sits on 1.9, per fbref.com.
In each of their last three matches, Newcastle created at least 1.3 post-shot xG all three times.
Now Newcastle faces an Ipswich defense that has struggled to keep teams out as home underdogs.
Even if you exclude the Liverpool match from the sample, the remaining results still aren’t pretty.
McKenna’s side allowed at least one post-shot xG in all matches against Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Bournemouth.
But I also expect the Ipswich attack can take advantage of a Newcastle side playing on short rest.
For as weak as Ipswich’s defensive metrics have looked as home dogs, their attacking metrics are quite encouraging.
Ipswich created at least 1.7 post-shot xG in each of those four matches as home underdogs. Now, they get a Newcastle defense that has kept only one clean sheet away from home.
History also likes this spot hitting over 2.5 goals.
Since 2012, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals are 67% to the over, assuming three factors:
- The home team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.0 and 1.7
- The road team’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +4
- The home team’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +3
Shrink the sample down to games from 2022 onward and it improves to 34-9 (79%).
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