- Ipswich is predicted to be a +1.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal has won each of its last 10 EPL matches against promoted teams.
- My Ipswich vs Arsenal prediction is a lean to Ipswich Town’s spread.
Off a surprise result as road underdogs to Chelsea, Ipswich Town return home to face Arsenal.
Kieran McKenna’s squad earned a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge on Matchday 32. Still, the Tractor Boys sit 14 points outside of safety with no wins since April 2.
Arsenal drew Brentford 1-1 at home on Matchday 32. While it marks the sixth league match unbeaten for Arsenal, Mikel Arteta’s side owns only two wins over that span.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Ipswich Town vs. Arsenal prediction.
Ipswich vs Arsenal: Premier League Odds
- Ipswich Town Moneyline: +625
- Arsenal Moneyline: -235
- Draw Moneyline: +375
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-105), “No” (-135)
Arsenal vs Ipswich: Prediction
Based purely on historical precedent and Ipswich Town’s success against Chelsea, my Ipswich vs Arsenal prediction is the Ipswich Town Spread (+1.5, -155).
I’m going to wait on this to see if the juice comes down and the price gets closer to a flat +1.5 rather than, effectively, +1.25.
The problem with backing Ipswich Town is that they’ve struggled to stay within striking distance against good teams at Portman Road.
The Tractor Boys are 4-12 ATS at home this year, including 4-9 as home underdogs. In fact, they’ve covered the spread at home only once in their last nine games.
Of course, only two of those matches saw Ipswich close north of +1.5. They’re 1-1 ATS in those games: a 2-0 win over Chelsea and a 6-0 loss to Manchester City.
For the season, Ipswich is 1-3 ATS as home dogs of +1 or higher.
The issue with backing Arsenal is that they face a midweek Champions League match and failed to cover this number against Ipswich earlier this season.
That match featured a rotated squad for Arsenal, however, with no Bukayo Saka.
As painful as it is to consider, Ipswich matches a historically profitable angle on Sunday.
Since 2012, 1.5-goal underdogs that closed as a dog in their previous game are 32-9 ATS, assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 50% and 70%
- The opponent’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +1
- The underdog’s margin in the last head-to-head match is -2 or -1
However, those dogs generally cover at a higher rate between -145 and +140 on the spread (30-6 vs. 2-3 ATS at -150 or higher).
As a result, I’ll wait to see if Ipswich’s price drops before making a decision on betting them to cover.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Apr. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | St. James' Park |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
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