- Leicester City is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
- Wolves has lost eight of its last nine EPL Sunday away matches.
- My Leicester City vs. Wolves prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
A relegation six-pointer features on Sunday at the King Power Stadium, with Leicester City hosting Wolves.
Leicester’s strong run of form under new manager Ruud van Nistelrooy ended on Matchday 16 with a 4-0 loss at Newcastle United. Still, Leicester sits 17th in the table, two points from safety.
Wolves lost a heartbreaker against Ipswich Town on Matchday 17. Following that fixture, Wolves sacked manager Gary O’Neil and replaced him with Vitor Pereira.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Leicester City vs. Wolves prediction.
Leicester City vs. Wolves Odds, Premier League
Leicester City vs. Wolves Prediction
Based on the recent strong attacking metrics for both teams and Leicester’s weak defense, my Leicester City vs. Wolves prediction is a SGP: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-130).
It’s a touch juicy to trust two bad teams, but this match sets up as a high-scoring contest between two desperate teams.
Leicester, under van Nistelrooy, have largely excelled offensively.
A 0.2 xG performance at Newcastle looks concerning. However, in two prior home fixtures against West Ham and Brighton, Leicester created 1.5 xG per 90 and 2.4 post-shot xG per 90.
While the Wolves defense has run super unlucky recently – they’ve conceded eight goals off 3.1 expected in their last three – I question if they keep a clean sheet.
This year, Wolves has kept only a single clean sheet, including no such successes away from home.
It’s also a good chance to buy a strong Wolves offense against one of the league’s worst defenses.
This marks Wolves’ third straight game against a team 15th or worse in non-penalty xGA per 90 minutes.
They managed 1.3 post-shot xG at West Ham and 1.5 post-shot xG against Ipswich Town.
Leicester rates out the second-worst defense in the league by non-penalty xGA per 90 minutes.
Even if you just evaluate Leicester’s matches against bad attacks, the results aren’t encouraging. Both Everton and Southampton eclipsed 1.5 post-shot xG.
Wolves rank a superior attack than both those squads in terms of post-shot xG and have scored multiple goals in three of their previous five road matches.
History also likes backing this match to clear 2.5 goals.
Since 2022, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals, a home team off a loss, and a road team averaging between 1.3 and 1.5 goals are 36-18 to the over.
