- Liverpool is a 1.5-goal home favorite against Aston Villa.
- Liverpool has won nine straight EPL night matches at Anfield following a win.
- My Liverpool vs. Aston Villa prediction is to use the Liverpool moneyline in a parlay.
Saturday’s marquee Premier League fixture sees Liverpool welcome Aston Villa to Anfield.
Liverpool’s strong run in the league continued last week. A 2-1 come-from-behind win against Brighton, paired with Manchester City’s defeat, vaulted the Reds to the top of the table.
As for Aston Villa, they took a 1-0 lead at Tottenham but conceded four unanswered goals. Entering Sunday, Villa have lost three straight in all competitions.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Premier League Odds: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | +1.5 (-165) | 3.5 (+110) | +475 |
| Liverpool | -1.5 (+115) | 3.5 (-155) | -210 |
| Draw | +375 |
Premier League Betting: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Based on Liverpool’s strong record at home and Villa’s inability to travel, my Liverpool vs. Aston Villa prediction is the Liverpool Moneyline (-210).
To drive the price down, I’ll pair it with the Tottenham Moneyline (-400) for a price of -119.
Villa captured three wins and a draw in their first five road matches of the season. However, the match against Tottenham shows me they can’t perform well against good teams.
Unai Emery’s side lost the post-shot expected goals battle 2.8-1.0 at Spurs. Now they have to face a Liverpool side 7-1 SU at Anfield in all competitions this season.
The last time these teams played at Anfield, Villa struggled immensely.
Emery’s side fell 3-0 to Liverpool, who posted a 2.5 to 0.7 edge on expected goals and a 5-0 edge on big scoring chances.
Even more concerning for Villa is that they face a third straight road game in a week with one fewer day of prep than Liverpool, who played on Tuesday in the Champions League.
That’s a lot to overcome for a team that just received a blowout in a spot where hosts tend to perform well.
Since 2012, home teams priced between -210 and -110 are 74% SU, assuming three factors:
- The home team’s previous game margin is -4, -3, -1 or +1
- The visitor’s previous game margin falls between -4 and -1
- The host’s result in the last meeting fell between +0 and +2
Since 2018, the hosts improve to 43-15 SU. Since the 2022 Premier League season, those home teams are 18-3 SU.
As a result, take Liverpool to earn all three points at home on Saturday.
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