- Liverpool is a -2.5-goal home favorite against Leicester City.
- Liverpool has won each of its last 10 EPL night matches at Anfield following a win.
- My Liverpool vs. Leicester City prediction is for Liverpool to cover the spread.
Following a 6-3 blowout win away from home, Liverpool return to Anfield for a meeting with Leicester City.
The Reds earned a second consecutive win over Tottenham and gave themselves a four-point cushion atop the league table.
Leicester City fell 3-0 at home to Wolves on Sunday for a second consecutive league defeat. Still, the Foxes sit two points clear of the relegation zone despite the loss.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs. Leicester City prediction.
Liverpool vs. Leicester City Odds, Premier League
Liverpool vs. Leicester City Prediction
Based on Leicester City’s weak record as a road underdog, my Liverpool vs. Leicester City prediction is the Liverpool Spread (-2.5, -135).
It’s difficult to foresee an outcome where Leicester City keeps this game respectable.
Arne Slot’s Liverpool owns a +1.15 expected goal differential per 90 minutes at Anfield this season. Only Arsenal possesses a superior home expected goal differential.
Comparatively, Leicester’s road xGDiff per 90 minutes sits at -1.26. Only Ipswich Town holds an inferior differential away from home.
But if you examine Leicester’s results against strong teams away from home, the results suddenly become much worse.
In trips to Newcastle, Brentford and Arsenal, the Foxes have failed to cover this spread twice.
The one success – a 4-2 loss at Arsenal – came undeservedly as Leicester lost the expected goals battle 4.4-0.3, per fbref.com.
The post-shot expected goals results flattered Leicester even less in those three matches.
Across all three trips, the EPL newcomers posted a -3.86 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes and failed to stay within 2.5 goals in all three matches.
Now, Leicester has to face a Liverpool side that just covered this number away from home … in a match where the margin could have been greater.
At Tottenham, a side miles better than Leicester, Liverpool posted a +3.35 expected goal differential and a +7 edge on big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
For those reasons, back the hosts to cover a big number and continue their positive form.
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