- Man City is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- Manchester City has won seven straight EPL home matches against Bournemouth.
- My Man City vs. Bournemouth prediction is the Bournemouth moneyline.
On the heels of Saturday’s FA Cup final, Manchester City turns around for a Tuesday EPL match against Bournemouth.
By the time Tuesday’s match rolls around, City could find themselves in a precarious league position. Wins by both Chelsea and Aston Villa would drop City to sixth in the league.
Bournemouth still has hope for a European spot. If City wins the FA Cup, the Cherries suddenly find themselves only two points out of a Europa Conference League spot.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Man City vs Bournemouth: Premier League Odds
- Manchester City Moneyline: -185
- Draw Moneyline: +340
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +450
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-165)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-175), “No” (+120)
Bournemouth vs Man City: Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s rest advantage and their previous success against Man City, my Man City vs Bournemouth prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline (+450).
For Andoni Iraola’s side, the spot couldn’t be better. Bournemouth receives 10 days between games, while City plays two games in four days, one of which is a Cup final.
Perhaps Pep Guardiola elects to rotate for the FA Cup final as the league offers the only chance to qualify for the Champions League.
Either way, bettors should wait for lineups on both Saturday and Tuesday before placing this bet.
Specifically, I’d like this bet a lot more if Erling Haaland, Omar Marmoush and Jeremy Doku fail to feature in the Starting XI on Tuesday.
Even if Guardiola elects to start those players, Bournemouth enjoyed a strong result over City earlier this season.
The Cherries, as home underdogs around this same price, captured a 2-1 win over City. That match saw Bournemouth edge City 2.51-1.93 on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Although City returned to the Vitality Stadium with a 2-1 win in the FA Cup, personnel matters for that match.
Bournemouth rested central defender Dean Huijsen for that fixture and deployed a backup defensive lineup.
If City wins the FA Cup, it suddenly creates loads of motivation for Bournemouth, which could rise up the table depending on their Tuesday result.
History also likes taking Bournemouth off a narrow defeat.
Since 2012, previous favorites off a one-goal loss are 88-73, assuming two factors:
- The opponent’s win percentage falls between 22% and 66%
- The previous head-to-head result is +1, +2 or -2
Just when those teams won the last head-to-head meeting by one or two goals: 67-51, including 16-24 when they’re an underdog.
As a result, it’s Bournemouth or nothing for me on Tuesday.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
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