- Man City is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Man City has won 20 of its last 21 EPL home matches following a loss.
- My Man City vs. Everton prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
Looking to end a two-match losing streak, Man City return home to face Everton.
Pep Guardiola’s side fell 2-1 as road favorites against Aston Villa on Matchday 17, their second consecutive defeat. Since November 1, City accumulated only four league points.
Everton captured a 0-0 home draw against Chelsea on Matchday 17, their second straight point as heavy underdogs. Now, they’ll hope to end a three-match losing streak against City.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Everton prediction.
Man City vs. Everton Odds, Premier League
Man City vs. Everton Prediction
Based on Everton’s extremely defensive record as heavy underdogs, my Man City vs. Everton prediction is Under 3.5 Goals (-175).
It’s a steep price to lay, and there’s no issue with anyone wanting to back Under 2.5 Goals (+140).
The fact remains Everton’s strategy in these big matches is to sit back, concede possession and try to limit chances.
Three matches fit that sample under Sean Dyche when Jarrad Branthwaite starts: at Arsenal, vs. Chelsea and at. Manchester United.
Two of those matches finished 0-0 with the visit to United a 4-0 loss for Everton.
However, the underlying metrics suggest that match should have finished a low-scoring one as well. United managed four goals off 1.1 xG and 1.4 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
Right now, City’s attack simply isn’t strong enough to warrant a total this high.
Guardiola’s side is creating only 1.76 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. Last season, they created 1.96 npxG per 90 minutes.
Plus, the most recent meeting against Dyche’s Everton proved extremely uneventful.
City captured a 2-0 home win over the Toffees in a match that featured only 1.95 expected goals and 1.22 post-shot expected goals.
While City’s defensive record year over year is alarming, they’ll face an Everton attack without Dwight McNeil.
This season, McNeil leads the Toffees in expected assists. Without him, Dyche is left with only one player with more than 1.5 xA for the season.
Without a creator, bettors should expect a weak showing from the Everton attack. As a result, back the under on Thursday in Manchester.
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