- Man United is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
- Manchester United has lost three of its last four EPL Sunday matches.
- My Man United vs. Man City prediction is the Man City Moneyline.
Looking to complete the season double over their Mancunian rivals, United hosts City at Old Trafford on Sunday.
The Red Devils suffered a brutal 1-0 defeat on Tuesday at Nottingham Forest, despite winning on expected goals. The loss keeps United 13th in the league table.
Manchester City cruised to a 2-0 win over Leicester City on Wednesday. The result moved the defending champions into fourth, pending Chelsea’s result on Thursday.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man United vs. Man City prediction.
Man City vs Man United: Premier League Odds
- Manchester United Moneyline: +225
- Manchester City Moneyline: +110
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-190), “No” (+135)
Man United vs Man City Prediction
Based on Man City’s loss in the last meeting and their push for a Champions League spot, my Man United vs. Man City prediction is the Man City Moneyline (+110).
The idea of backing a City team that’s a) without Erling Haaland, b) as a road favorite and c) in a season where they’re 9-21 ATS (update) is slightly alarming.
That said, motivation has to exist in the City dressing room to avoid dropping points in both meetings with their archrivals.
The price also strikes me as a bit disrespectful to Man City.
City closed at -110 at Nottingham Forest on March 8. Even if you adjust for the Haaland absence, Forest rates out a far superior team to Manchester United.
It’s also not as if City lacks a familiarity playing without Haaland. Last season, they operated without their striker in seven matches, winning six of those games.
The potential lynchpin, of course, is that City featured Ballon D’Or winner Rodri in all seven of those matches. Without him this season, City posted markedly worse results.
That said, they’re getting a United side which hasn’t earned all three points as home underdogs this season, drawing twice and losing twice.
It’s simultaneously a historically profitable spot for the Cityzens.
Since 2012, road favorites that posted a -1 margin in the last meeting are 44-14, assuming three factors:
- The favorite closed as a favorite in their last game
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +5
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 27% and 62%
Shrink the sample down to teams with a win percentage between 27% and 50%, and they improve to 29-6 SU.
As a result, I like Man City to capture all three points at Old Trafford come Sunday.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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