- Manchester United is +2000 to win the Premier League in 2024-25.
- United finished eighth last year, but drastically overperformed their underlying metrics.
- I predict Manchester United will not reach the top four this year.
To rescue an otherwise lackluster campaign, Manchester United won the FA Cup and elected to keep manager Erik ten Hag.
Save for that result, there wasn’t much to write home about in United’s 2023-24 campaign. They finished eighth in the league and earned only six points against fellow Big Six sides.
Now, they’ll hope to produce a season to take them back to the Champions League for the second time in three years.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Manchester United odds and my betting predictions for Manchester United’s campaign.
Manchester United Futures Odds
- League Winner: +2000
- Top-4 Finish: +200
- Relegation Odds: +15000
- Top Goalscorer: Rasmus Hojlund (+4000), Joshua Kirkzee (+5000)
Manchester United Notable Permanent Additions
- Joshua Kirkzee, Midfielder (Bologna)
- Leny Yoro, Defender (Lille)
Manchester United Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season
I predict Manchester United will finish outside the top four this season.
The market has so much respect for United, but in reality they’re a worse team than some clubs behind them in the futures market.
While acknowledging all their injury woes last year — 45 separate injuries, 1,620 combined days lost — the fact remains their underlying metrics were atrocious.
Despite finishing eighth in the table, United posted the 15th-best expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
They were particularly lucky away from home. United posted a -4 road goal differential compared to a -13.2 expected goal differential.
The Red Devils earned 27 points away from home last season, yet amassed only 17.3 expected points. That bettered only four teams, three of which were relegated.
Equally concerning is United went from one of the best frontrunners in 2022-23 to average with a lead.
In the former campaign, United took the lead 26 times and converted 23 of those leads into wins. They also dropped all three points only once.
Last year, they dropped from third to eighth in points from leading positions. United took the lead 25 times and earned all three points only 18 times.
Some of that can be attributed to their injury woes.
However, given they’ve lost Raphael Varane on a free transfer and new signing Leny Yoro went down in the summer, it’s hard to see a reversal of fortunes.
Add in my distrust of ten Hag and United is a fade team for me in 2024.
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