- Manchester United is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
- Newcastle United has won three of the previous four games against United.
- My Manchester United vs. Newcastle prediction is the Newcastle Spread.
The marquee Premier League fixture of Matchday 19 pits Manchester United against Newcastle United.
Manchester United’s struggles continued as road favorites against Wolves. A Bruno Fernandes red card three minutes out of halftime resigned the visitors to a 2-0 defeat, their second in a row.
Newcastle, meanwhile, blew out Aston Villa 3-0 at St. James’ Park on Boxing Day thanks to a Villa red card. That performance gives Newcastle a fourth straight league win.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Manchester United vs. Newcastle prediction.
Manchester United vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League
Manchester United vs. Newcastle Prediction
Based on Bruno Fernandes’ absence and the strength of Newcastle’s attack, my Manchester United vs. Newcastle prediction is Newcastle United Draw, No Bet (-130).
Newcastle’s attack has proved a reliable force against United in recent meetings.
Their last visit to Old Trafford saw Eddie Howe’s side create 2.2 expected goals and 1.3 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
If you trust the xG result from that match, Newcastle proved unlucky to walk away with a 3-2 defeat. From an expected goals standpoint, the visitors won the match 2.2 to 1.5.
That marks a troubling trend for United, who haven’t kept Newcastle under two expected goals in any of the three previous meetings.
If that continues, one would assume United needs three goals to see Newcastle drop all three points.
They’ll have to accomplish that feat without Fernandes, the catalyst for United’s attack.
Fernandes led the team with 8.8 non-penalty xG plus expected assists prior to Thursday’s match against Wolves.
Plus, United haven’t earned an outright win without Fernandes in any match since the 2022 EPL season.
There’s also a bit of betting calculus behind playing Newcastle.
Historically, December matches featuring a total set at 2.5 tend to fly over the total under a particular set of circumstances.
Since 2012, such matches are 44-9 to the over, assuming three factors:
- The spread for the home team is -0.5 or +0.5
- The away team’s average number of goals falls between 1.3 and 1.7
- The home team’s average number of goals falls between 0.8 and 2.1
In a high-scoring fixture, place trust in the team with all their attacking pieces available: Newcastle.
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