- Manchester United is a -1.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
- The Red Devils earned a 2-1 road win against Sheffield in the last meeting.
- Why the market is overvaluing Manchester United as home favorites.
Following their FA Cup semifinal win against Coventry City on Sunday, Manchester United return home to face Premier League cellar-dwellers Sheffield United.
The Red Devils needed penalty kicks to reach the FA Cup final after blowing a 3-0 advantage late in the second half.
As for Sheffield United, they struggled at home against relegation-threatened Burnley. As short home dogs, they fell 4-1 to the Clarets.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United
- Manchester United Moneyline: -350
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +750
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)
EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United
Sheffield United Spread (+1.5, +100)
If bettors learned anything from United’s FA Cup semifinal on Sunday, it’s that the backdoor is always open.
Up 3-0 on Championship side Coventry City, United surrendered three goals in the final 20 minutes + injury time to send the match to extra time.
United also ran fairly lucky in that match as they lost the post-shot expected goals battle 1.55 to 2.23, per fotmob.com.
Now they have to turn around and play on short rest. Although the odds suggest they’ll win the match outright, I question if they cover a lofty spread.
Sample nine matches this season in which United closed at -145 or higher and bettors will find they’re 6-3 SU, but have seen five of those wins come by a single goal.
Since the beginning of last season, they’re 16-7 SU at -145 or higher but have covered -1.5 in only seven of those 23 matches.
It’s also not as if they dominated Sheffield United when they last played. United won the match 2-1 but only captured the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.1 to 0.63.
Plus, there’s a historically profitable system recommending a bet on Sheffield United.
Since 2012-13, road dogs with a win percentage under 30% are 63.7% ATS, assuming three factors:
- The spread is between +1.5 and +2.5
- The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and -5
- The team’s game number is between 17 and 38
Just this season, those teams are 14-2-1 ATS.
One final note with a slight caveat – history suggests Sheffield are worth a flier on the moneyline.
Since 2012-13, road dogs between +355 and +2000 with a win percentage under 28% are 18.9% SU for a 45% return on investment, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and +1
- The team’s game number is between 18 and 38
However, I’m obliged to mention three teams have fit that profile after allowing two or more goals in seven straight games, a moniker that fits Sheffield.
Those teams are 0-3 SU in such spots.
As a result, I’d prefer to take a moneyline position on Burnley at Old Trafford on Saturday.
That said, even money on Sheffield to stay within a goal is worth a wager on Wednesday.
Manchester United Form
April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup, United Win on PK’s)
April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D
April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D
April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L
March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D
Sheffield United Form
April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L
April 13 vs. Brentford: 0-2, L
April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L
March 30 vs. Fulham: 3-3, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
