- Manchester United is a -1.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
- The Red Devils earned a 2-1 road win against Sheffield in the last meeting.
- Why the market is overvaluing Manchester United as home favorites.
Following their FA Cup semifinal win against Coventry City on Sunday, Manchester United return home to face Premier League cellar-dwellers Sheffield United.
The Red Devils needed penalty kicks to reach the FA Cup final after blowing a 3-0 advantage late in the second half.
As for Sheffield United, they struggled at home against relegation-threatened Burnley. As short home dogs, they fell 4-1 to the Clarets.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United
- Manchester United Moneyline: -350
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +750
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)
EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United
Sheffield United Spread (+1.5, +100)
If bettors learned anything from United’s FA Cup semifinal on Sunday, it’s that the backdoor is always open.
Up 3-0 on Championship side Coventry City, United surrendered three goals in the final 20 minutes + injury time to send the match to extra time.
United also ran fairly lucky in that match as they lost the post-shot expected goals battle 1.55 to 2.23, per fotmob.com.
Now they have to turn around and play on short rest. Although the odds suggest they’ll win the match outright, I question if they cover a lofty spread.
Sample nine matches this season in which United closed at -145 or higher and bettors will find they’re 6-3 SU, but have seen five of those wins come by a single goal.
Since the beginning of last season, they’re 16-7 SU at -145 or higher but have covered -1.5 in only seven of those 23 matches.
It’s also not as if they dominated Sheffield United when they last played. United won the match 2-1 but only captured the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.1 to 0.63.
Plus, there’s a historically profitable system recommending a bet on Sheffield United.
Since 2012-13, road dogs with a win percentage under 30% are 63.7% ATS, assuming three factors:
- The spread is between +1.5 and +2.5
- The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and -5
- The team’s game number is between 17 and 38
Just this season, those teams are 14-2-1 ATS.
One final note with a slight caveat – history suggests Sheffield are worth a flier on the moneyline.
Since 2012-13, road dogs between +355 and +2000 with a win percentage under 28% are 18.9% SU for a 45% return on investment, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and +1
- The team’s game number is between 18 and 38
However, I’m obliged to mention three teams have fit that profile after allowing two or more goals in seven straight games, a moniker that fits Sheffield.
Those teams are 0-3 SU in such spots.
As a result, I’d prefer to take a moneyline position on Burnley at Old Trafford on Saturday.
That said, even money on Sheffield to stay within a goal is worth a wager on Wednesday.
Manchester United Form
April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup, United Win on PK’s)
April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D
April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D
April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L
March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D
Sheffield United Form
April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L
April 13 vs. Brentford: 0-2, L
April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L
March 30 vs. Fulham: 3-3, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
