Newcastle vs. Leicester City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Hoping to end a four-match winless run, Newcastle United welcomes Leicester City to St. James’ Park. 

The Magpies fell 4-2 at Brentford on Matchday 15. It marked the second consecutive match Eddie Howe’s side notched at least two goals and failed to win the game outright. 

Leicester City earned a home point against Brighton thanks to a last-gasp comeback. Under new manager Ruud van Nistelrooy, the Foxes recorded one win and one draw. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. Leicester City prediction. 

Newcastle vs. Leicester City Odds, Premier League

Newcastle vs. Leicester City Prediction

Based entirely on Leicester’s weak defensive metrics and their consistent attack, my Newcastle vs. Leicester City prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+115). 

Trusting an inconsistent Newcastle attack is scary, especially given the trend Newcastle tends to play to the level of its competition. 

There are encouraging offensive performances bettors can point to with Howe’s side. Against Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, Newcastle amassed at least 2.3 post-shot xG in each game. 

Both those sides are fifth or better in post-shot expected goals against. 

However, this is also a Newcastle team that, albeit away from home, managed one shot against a bad Crystal Palace defense. 

This match should paint a clear picture of Newcastle’s offensive ability against a bad defense. 

Leicester is tied for last in post-shot expected goals against, per fbref.com. 

In their last three matches – Brentford, West Ham, Brighton – Leicester have yet to keep an opponent under three post-shot xG. 

Leicester’s already weak defensive operation takes a hit on Saturday as both Boubakary Soumare and Wilfred Ndidi are out for Leicester. 

The good news for the visitors? They’ve scored in every league match this year in which Jamie Vardy started. 

On Saturday, they’ll get a Newcastle defense that is currently 10th in post-shot xG allowed. 

History also favors this spot featuring loads of goals. 

Over the last two years, games featuring a total of 3.5 are 22-8 to the over, assuming two factors:

• The home team’s previous game margin falls between -5 and -1
• The road team’s average number of goals falls between 1.3 and 2.5

When those road teams average between 1.4 and 1.9 goals, over 3.5 is a perfect 9-0 over that span. Expand the sample to include 2021-22, and it becomes 14-4 to the over.