- Newcastle is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Brentford.
- Brentford has won each of its last three EPL matches as an underdog.
- My Newcastle vs. Brentford prediction is the Newcastle United Moneyline.
Looking to continue a strong run of road results, Brentford travels to St. James’ Park for a match against Newcastle.
Brentford has won five matches on the bounce away from home and has posted six straight unbeaten on the road. In their last league match, they beat Bournemouth 2-1.
Newcastle earned a 1-0 road win against West Ham in their last league match and sits sixth in the table. At home, Newcastle has won four of their previous six.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. Brentford prediction.
Newcastle vs. Brentford: Premier League Odds
- Newcastle United Moneyline: -145
- Brentford Moneyline: +333
- Draw Moneyline: +333
- Game Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-200), “No” (+145)
Newcastle vs. Brentford Prediction
Based on Brentford’s expected regression away from home, my Newcastle vs. Brentford prediction is the Newcastle Moneyline (-145).
While the Bees own a strong recent record away from home, their season-long metrics indicate luck played a role.
Brentford possesses a +2 road goal differential compared to a -4.1 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Newcastle, up through this point, largely ran in line with season-long expectations at home. To date, Eddie Howe’s side has posted a +7 home goal differential vs. a +6.5 xGDiff.
While the Magpies own two home losses in their previous six, both came against sides with a stronger road record than Brentford: Bournemouth and Fulham.
Most recently, Newcastle played a Nottingham Forest side with a comparable road record to Brentford. They won the match 4-3 with a +1.2 xGDiff.
Plus, it’s a solid revenge spot for the hosts. Although they fell 4-2 at Brentford earlier this season, metrics suggest – at best – Brentford’s margin should have been +1.
Expected goals rated that match a 1.5-1.2 win for Newcastle, while post-shot xG rated it a 2.3-1.3 wins for Brentford.
Lastly, history suggests this game presents a strong spot for Newcastle.
Since 2012, favorites between -150 and -107 in fixture 24 onward are 43-9, assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 37% and 58%
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +5
As a result, I like the hosts to earn all three points on Wednesday at home.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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