- Newcastle is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
- Newcastle United has won each of its last five EPL matches.
- My Newcastle vs. Wolves prediction is for Wolves to cover the spread.
Newcastle look to continue their ascent up the Premier League table with a Matchday 21 fixture against Wolves.
The Magpies secured a 2-1 win over Tottenham on Matchday 20, their fifth win in a row. Eddie Howe’s side then parlayed that win into a 2-0 midweek win over Arsenal in the League Cup.
Wolves suffered a 3-0 defeat against Nottingham Forest on Matchday 20, their first outright defeat under Vitor Pereira. In spite of that defeat, Wolves sit outside the relegation zone.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. Wolves prediction.
Newcastle vs. Wolves Odds, Premier League
Newcastle vs. Wolves Prediction
Based on Wolves’ success against Newcastle in the previous meeting and the return of Matheus Cunha, my Newcastle vs. Wolves prediction is the Wolves Spread (+1.5, -120).
Wolves impressed with their offensive ability on Matchday 20 against Forest in spite of playing without Cunha, their best player.
Pereira’s side created 1.5 expected goals and one post-shot xG against a strong Forest defense. If you go by expected goals, the Forest 3-0 win was lucky by a 2.1-1.5 xG win.
Wolves also performed well against Newcastle in the reverse fixture at Molineux.
They took a 1-0 lead and ultimately lost 2-1, but they stayed within this number both on xG and post-shot xG.
Cunha’s return should bolster an attack against a Newcastle side playing their fourth match in 11 days come Wednesday night.
History also likes this spot to back Wolves as big road underdogs.
Since 2012, 1.5-goal underdogs that closed a dog in their previous match are 69-26 ATS (73%), assuming three factors:
- The dog lost the previous head-to-head meeting
- The dog failed to win their previous fixture
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
When that match occurs from Matchday 19 onward, the dog improves to 44-9 ATS, including 13-1 since the 2022 season.
As a result, grab the visitors to keep Wednesday’s match at St. James’ Park a close contest.
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