- Nottingham Forest is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- The home team has won each of Nottingham's last five EPL matches.
- My Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal prediction is the Forest spread.
Two Champions League hopefuls clash on Wednesday at The City Ground with Nottingham Forest hosting Arsenal.
Both teams failed to win their weekend fixtures. Arsenal fell 1-0 as heavy home favorites against West Ham, while Forest fell 4-3 in a thriller at Newcastle United.
Still, each side occupies a Champions League spot. Arsenal sits second with a six-point advantage over Forest, which leads fifth-place by a narrow three-point gap.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal prediction.
Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s lack of offensive weaponry and Forests’ strong home record, my Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal prediction is the Forest Spread (+0.5, -120).
This is a classic buy-low spot on a team that looked better in defeat.
Although Forest fell 4-3 at Newcastle, they created two post-shot xG and stayed within this number on both non-penalty xG and post-shot xG.
Now they return home off a two-game road trip. This season, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side has played markedly better at The City Ground.
Only Liverpool and Arsenal have surrendered fewer expected goals at home this season. Through 12 home matches, Forest has dropped all three points only twice.
It’s a slight concern that Forest has closed a home dog only twice this season, drawing once and losing once.
But they’re facing an Arsenal side that has drastically overperformed away from home.
Entering Wednesday’s match, Mikel Arteta’s side owns a +12 road goal differential vs. a +4.4 road expected goal differential.
They’re also coping with myriad injuries to an already mediocre attack. Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz are all out, leaving few options for Arteta.
Without that quartet, Arsenal generated a lackluster 1.2 xG and 0.1 post-shot xG against a West Ham defense 17th and 16th in the corresponding defensive metrics.
Against a Forest defense fourth and seventh, bettors should expect a similar, if not worse, output.
Finally, I like supplementing the Forest spread bet with a smaller bet on the Forest Moneyline (+290).
Since 2012, home underdogs priced between +212 and +356 are 43-69 SU, assuming two factors:
- The underdog closed an underdog in their previous game
- The underdog’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting fell between -3 and -2
Shrink the sample down to games since 2018: 33-47 SU for a 51% return on investment.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Apr. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | St. James' Park |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
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