- Nottingham Forest is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Brentford.
- Nottingham has won seven straight EPL matches as a favorite following a league win.
- My Nottingham Forest vs Brentford prediction is the total over 2.5 goals.
On the heels of an FA Cup exit, Nottingham Forest returns home for a midweek fixture against Brentford.
Forest fell 2-0 to Manchester City on Sunday and now shifts its attention to trying to reach the Champions League. Currently, Forest sit behind Chelsea only on goal differential.
Brentford last pulled off a 4-2 home win over Brentford on April 19. After winning five straight away from home, Brentford own one point in their last two league trips.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford prediction.
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford: Premier League Odds
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +110
- Brentford Moneyline: +230
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/-105)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-155), “No” (+110)
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction
Based on Brentford’s extended rest period and their high-event road matches, my Nottingham Forest vs Brentford prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-135).
Thursday’s match qualifies as a nightmare spot for Forest. After playing on Sunday, they travel to play on Thursday before a Monday fixture next week.
Meanwhile, Brentford arrive at the City Ground with extended rest. Not since April 19 has Thomas Frank’s side played, which will give a distinct edge to the visitors.
While I’m wary of stepping in front of a Forest defense that has surrendered the third-fewest expected goals at home, Brentford’s attack has posted strong numbers all season.
While the Bees rank 11th in expected goals and non-penalty xG per 90, they improve to seventh in post-shot xG per 90, per fbref.com.
They’re also coming off a top offensive performance by creating 2.1 xG and 3.4 post-shot xG performance against Brighton.
But I simultaneously worry about the Brentford defense against Forest.
The Tricky Trees generated 1.4 post-shot xG at Brentford earlier this season and generally improved at home. This season, they’ve averaged 0.05 xG per 90 more at home.
Brentford road matches have simultaneously proved particularly eventful. Their 16 road matches average 2.77 xG per 90 minutes, with 11 of 16 clearing 2.5 goals.
This fixture also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since last year, matches featuring a total set at 2.5 goals are 69-28 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.4 and 1.9
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.8
With Forest as the home team: 4-2 to the over. Irrespective of team, those matches are 43-13 to the over when it features a home favorite.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | May. 1 | 2:30 p.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Wolves | May. 2 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
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