- Tottenham is +2000 to win the Premier League in 2024-25.
- Under new manager Ange Postecoglou, Spurs improved by three spots in 2023-24.
- I predict Tottenham will take a step back in the 2024 season.
The best thing that can be said about Ange Postecoglou’s debut season: Tottenham made improvements year over year.
Spurs finished eighth in 2022-23, and weren’t expected to accomplish much last year after selling Harry Kane.
However, Tottenham managed a fifth-placed finish and Europa League placement.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Tottenham odds and my betting predictions for Tottenham’s campaign.
Tottenham Futures Odds
- League Winner: +2000
- Top-4 Finish: +200
- Relegation Odds: +20000
- Top Goalscorer: Heung-Min Son (+2500)
Tottenham Notable Permanent Additions
- Timo Werner, Attacker (RB Leipzig, Loan)
- Archie Gray, Midfielder (Leeds United)
Tottenham Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season
I predict Tottenham will regress from the 2023-24 point total, and fail to secure a top-four finish.
This club is historically tricky to predict, given they’ve outperformed their expected point total each of the last seven years.
However, even when evaluating the most recent version of Spurs, I struggle to see an optimistic view.
Under new manager Ange Postecoglou, Tottenham played their best when all of James Maddison, Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven featured.
The trio featured for at least 60 minutes in 25 Tottenham matches last season. Spurs finished 15-4-6 (W-D-L) in those matches with a +0.27 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Comparatively, Tottenham finished 5-2-6 (W-D-L) without any of those three featuring for more than 45 minutes.
Of course, one such loss was a 4-1 defeat to Chelsea where Tottenham had two men sent off inside the first half.
Irrespective of lineup, this was a Tottenham team that earned 66 points last year on 57.4 expected points and earned only three wins in 13 tries as an underdog.
That qualifies as Tottenham’s largest points overperformance since the 2019-20 season, per understat.com.
Of course, they actually saw increases in total points each of the next two seasons.
But, part of me can’t help but wonder if Spurs’ success last season came down to a lack of European football, which helps inform their 17-8 SU record as favorites.
With extra fixtures to play and (potentially) more injuries, I could see Spurs dropping points more often as a favorite.
Accordingly, expect some negative regression for Tottenham in 2024.
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