- Tottenham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- The road team has won four of Tottenham's last five EPL matches.
- My Tottenham vs. Bournemouth prediction is the total over 3.5 goals.
On the heels of a midweek Europa League fixture, Tottenham return home to face Bournemouth.
Tottenham’s 1-0 home loss to Manchester City snapped a three-match winning streak in the league. Entering Matchday 28, Tottenham sits 13th in the league table.
Bournemouth sit seventh in the league following a 2-1 loss to Brighton on Matchday 27. That loss snapped a seven-match road unbeaten run for the Cherries.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Tottenham vs. Bournemouth: Premier League Odds
Tottenham vs. Bournemouth Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s expected regression both offensively and defensively, my Tottenham vs. Bournemouth prediction is the Total Over 3.5 Goals (-105).
It should not be overstated the amount of high-scoring regression coming for Bournemouth.
The Cherries have run particularly lucky defensively. Entering Matchday 28, Andoni Iraola’s side conceded 32 goals off 36.4 expected and 42.1 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
At a +10.1 goals saved over expected mark, Bournemouth are far and away the league leaders.
But bettors should question how Tottenham’s defense holds up on Sunday against a strong Bournemouth attack.
Bournemouth sits third in expected goals and fourth in post-shot expected goals. In the reverse fixture against Tottenham, the Cherries amassed 3.5 xG and 1.8 post-shot xG.
They’ve also run unlucky in attack, scoring 5.7 goals under post-shot expected. That’s the second-largest underperformance in the league.
They’ll also get Tottenham on short rest after a trip to AZ Alkmaar on Thursday.
This season, Spurs have struggled to defend after facing a midweek road match in Europe.
Four matches fit that description. On three of those occasions did Tottenham concede at least two goals without facing a top-five post-shot xG attack.
Across all four matches, Tottenham allowed 1.65 post-shot xG per 90. In the hardest of those four fixtures – at Brighton, sixth in post-shot xG – Spurs surrendered 2.3 post-shot xG.
History also likes this match to clear 3.5 goals.
Since last season, fixtures featuring a total set at 3.5 goals are 22-8 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The away team’s average number of goals falls between 1.5 and 2
- The away team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.5
As a result, I like a high-scoring fixture on Sunday in London.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the premier online sportsbook for EPL betting throughout the year.
With EPL futures and weekly odds, including match winner odds, over/under totals, and player props, there are a variety of opportunities to bet online!
If you don’t have an account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome offer. Once you have an account, check for daily sports betting promos.
