- Tottenham is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- The road team has won four of Tottenham's last five EPL matches.
- My Tottenham vs. Bournemouth prediction is the total over 3.5 goals.
On the heels of a midweek Europa League fixture, Tottenham return home to face Bournemouth.
Tottenham’s 1-0 home loss to Manchester City snapped a three-match winning streak in the league. Entering Matchday 28, Tottenham sits 13th in the league table.
Bournemouth sit seventh in the league following a 2-1 loss to Brighton on Matchday 27. That loss snapped a seven-match road unbeaten run for the Cherries.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Tottenham vs. Bournemouth: Premier League Odds
Tottenham vs. Bournemouth Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s expected regression both offensively and defensively, my Tottenham vs. Bournemouth prediction is the Total Over 3.5 Goals (-105).
It should not be overstated the amount of high-scoring regression coming for Bournemouth.
The Cherries have run particularly lucky defensively. Entering Matchday 28, Andoni Iraola’s side conceded 32 goals off 36.4 expected and 42.1 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
At a +10.1 goals saved over expected mark, Bournemouth are far and away the league leaders.
But bettors should question how Tottenham’s defense holds up on Sunday against a strong Bournemouth attack.
Bournemouth sits third in expected goals and fourth in post-shot expected goals. In the reverse fixture against Tottenham, the Cherries amassed 3.5 xG and 1.8 post-shot xG.
They’ve also run unlucky in attack, scoring 5.7 goals under post-shot expected. That’s the second-largest underperformance in the league.
They’ll also get Tottenham on short rest after a trip to AZ Alkmaar on Thursday.
This season, Spurs have struggled to defend after facing a midweek road match in Europe.
Four matches fit that description. On three of those occasions did Tottenham concede at least two goals without facing a top-five post-shot xG attack.
Across all four matches, Tottenham allowed 1.65 post-shot xG per 90. In the hardest of those four fixtures – at Brighton, sixth in post-shot xG – Spurs surrendered 2.3 post-shot xG.
History also likes this match to clear 3.5 goals.
Since last season, fixtures featuring a total set at 3.5 goals are 22-8 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The away team’s average number of goals falls between 1.5 and 2
- The away team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.5
As a result, I like a high-scoring fixture on Sunday in London.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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