Wolves vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Off a strong win as road favorites, Wolves return home to face Manchester United. 

New manager Vitor Pereira guided Wolves to a convincing 3-0 road win over Leicester City on Sunday. Still, Wolves sit two points behind the Foxes for the final safety spot. 

United fell 3-0 at home to upstart Bournemouth and currently sits 13th in the league. A United win on Thursday would mark their second straight league win away from home. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Wolves vs. Manchester United prediction. 

Wolves vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League

Wolves vs. Manchester United Prediction

Based on Manchester United’s strong attacking metrics and their potential positive regression, my Wolves vs. Manchester United prediction is Manchester United Over 1.5 Goals (-135). 

The thought of laying this much juice with United away from home is slightly alarming. However, United’s underlying metrics suggest regression could arrive soon. 

This season, the Red Devils have amassed 21 goals off 25.4 expected goals, per fbref.com. 

They’ve also run into some quality goalkeeping so far this season. United has managed 3.3 goals under post-shot expected, which is tied for the second-largest underperformance. 

They’ll experience no such issues on Thursday. Wolves goalkeepers have allowed 7.5 goals over post-shot expected, the worst mark in the Premier League. 

Plus, United completely bossed the Wolves defense when these sides last met at Molineux. 

United managed four goals off 3.34 expected goals, 3.47 post-shot expected goals and five big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. 

That performance renders this a perfect sell-high spot on Wolves, which has kept four straight opponents under one post-shot xG. 

However, all four of those performances came against a team 14th or worse in post-shot xG for the season. 

Entering Thursday’s match, United ranks 12th. However, improvement has come under Ruben Amorim, with United creating at least 1.4 post-shot xG in four of his five league matches. 

I’m also doing a bit of betting calculus for this market. 

Since 2022, matches featuring a home dog off a win and a total of 2.5 goals are 43-19 to the over. 

In those 62 matches, the road team cleared 1.5 goals 35 times or 56.5% of the time. 

Ideally, this price would come down to reflect that probability, but bettors should expect a strong performance from United’s attack.