- The Padres are -275 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Cincinnati Reds (+225) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-275) on Wednesday, May 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Reds vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 13-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 16-15 ATS.
Reds vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +2.5 -135 | O 8.5 -105 | +225 |
| Padres | -2.5 +110 | U 8.5 -115 | -275 |
Reds vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+10.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 29 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 16 games (+8.70 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+14.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+8.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 31 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
Padres vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Padres vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Padres vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -375 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Padres vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Cessa | 2.5 -150 | 2.5 +115 |
| Seth Lugo | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.50 Units / 30% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 18-12 against the Run Line (+5.5 Units / 14.42% ROI).
- 13-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -9.45% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 2.77% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -11.21% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 16-15 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -5.06% ROI).
- 16-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -10.71% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -13.98% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 5.65% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has allowed an OBP of .561 (41 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 42% (30/71) against Luis Cessa on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Cessa has allowed an OPS of 1.058 (108 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .720 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .398 (39-for-98) against Luis Cessa this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .253 — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (76/392) against Seth Lugo since last season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — sixth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (124/257) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (7/47) against Seth Lugo this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 83% (15/18) against Seth Lugo on low breaking pitches this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 18-28 (.391) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .654.
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Reds are just 61-6 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Reds are 5-13 (.278) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are 12-2 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Padres are 64-13 (.831) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Padres are just 4-70 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Padres are 38-15 (.717) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .654.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 10% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters have 17 extra-base hits out of 66 total hits (just 26%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .157 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Reds hitters have 6 extra-base hits out of 33 total hits (just 18%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .209 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 462 strikeouts in 2,260 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .269 (120 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Padres are batting just .216 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .345 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Reds pitchers have walked 720 of 7,389 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .313 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Padres have won 38% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Padres vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- William Myers (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
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